Development of COVID-19 Case in District and City of Jambi Province with Exponential Smoothing Methode

Abstract

Jambi Province is one of the province in western Indonesia, which was affected by COVID-19 in March and until mid-September the number confirmed positive reached 345 people. Until now COVID-19 has become a pandemic.Based on this data, it is necessary to predict the number of COVID-19 in Jambi Province, including every district in Jambi city. Double exponential smoothing: The Holt two-parameter method determines the value of the trend with a tang parameter different from the parameter used in the original series. The principle of forecasting using multiple exponential smoothing: The Holt two-parameter method uses two smoothing constants with values between 0 and 1. Based on the results of forecasting using the double exponential smoothing by Holt method, it can be seen that the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 in each region in Jambi Province continues to increase. This case is estimated to increase to 352 people in mid-October.

Efektivitas Penerapan Kebijakan Walikota Jambi Tentang Pedoman Penanganan Covid-19 Dalam Relaksasi Ekonomi dan Sosial Kemasyarakatan

“…Kondisi ini tak terlepas dari kepadatan dan mobilisasi penduduk kota yang lebih tinggi. Artinya kesiapan kota sangat diperlukan dalam penanganan dan pengendalian untuk memutus rantai penularan Covid-19 di tengah masyarakat (Yurinanda, 2020) (Nurhalimah, 2020). Tingginya tingkat penularan virus ini dan kompleksnya dampak yang ditimbulkan, mendorong pemerintah membuat berbagai kebijakan untuk mengurangi peningkatan dan penyebaran Covid-19.…”