Development of Crowd Evacuation Simulation for Risk Evaluation of Human Damage by Tsunami Inundation

Uno, Yoshiyuki; SHIGIHARA, Yasuko; Okayasu, Akio

doi:10.2208/kaigan.71.i_1615

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…The potential model, which [Yokoyama et al, 1995] was first proposed as an indoor evacuation model, was used as the framework for the simulation. The potential model was first proposed as an indoor simulation model; however, the model can also be applied to outdoor evacuation analysis [Kato et al, 2009;Arikawa and Oie, 2015;Makinoshima et al, 2015;Uno et al, 2015]. We adopted the model proposed in Arikawa and Oie [2015] as a model to calculate the movement of agents in reference to the Moore neighborhoods of potential grid cells.…”

Section: Framework Of the Developed Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Behavior from Tsunami Recorded in the Multimedia Sources at Kesennuma City in the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami and Its Simulation by Using the Evacuation Model with Pedestrian—Car Interaction

Makinoshima

Imamura

Abe

2016

Coastal Engineering Journal

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The evacuation behavior observed in Kesennuma City, Tohoku, Japan during the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami and a corresponding evacuation simulation are presented. We first organized the damage and evacuation behaviors observed in the target area using the results of previous studies and official surveys. In addition, we compiled all available multimedia sources recording evacuation behavior during the 2011 event to identify the precise temporal and spatial details of the evacuation behavior. Then, a tsunami evacuation simulation was developed based on all compiled evacuation data, considering the tendencies regarding the use of main roads for evacuation, residents' shelter preferences, and pedestrian-car interactions. The developed simulation was validated against the compiled evacuation behaviors by inputting the estimated initial conditions of the 2011 event. The traffic scenarios calculated in the simulation closely reproduced the actual traffic flow as observed from the evacuation data. The evacuee populations at several shelters in the simulation also quantitatively reproduced the trend of the real numbers of evacuees reported by Kesennuma City. The results of the simulation exhibited a better capability 1640023-1 F. Makinoshima, F. Imamura f3 Y. Abe to estimate the actual evacuation behavior during the 2011 event than that achieved in previous studies.

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