We used published information about foraging behaviour, terrestrial resting sites, bathymetry and seasonal ocean climate to develop hypotheses relating life-history traits and physical variables to the at-sea habitat of a wide-ranging marine predator, the Steller sea lion Eumetopias jubatus. We used these hypotheses to develop a series of habitat models predicting the probability of sea lions occurring within a 3 × 3 km 2 grid in the Gulf of Alaska and the Bering Sea. We compared these deductive model predictions with opportunistic at-sea observations of sea lions (presence-only data) using (1) a likelihood approach in a small area where effort was assumed to be uniformly distributed and (2) an adjusted skewness (Sk adj ) test that evaluated the distribution of the predicted values associated with true presence observations. We found that the Sk adj statistic was comparable to the likelihood test when using pseudo-absence data, but it was more powerful for assessing the relative performance of the different predictive spatial models across the entire study area. The habitat maps we produced for adult female sea lions using the deductive modelling approach captured a higher proportion of presence observations than the current habitat model (critical habitat) used by fisheries managers since 1993 to manage Steller sea lions. Such improved predictions of habitat are necessary to effectively design, implement and evaluate fishery mitigation measures. The deductive approach we propose is suitable for modelling the habitat use of other age and sex classes, and for integrating these age/sex-class-specific models into a revised definition of critical habitat for Steller sea lions. The skewness test provides a means of comparing the relative performance of such models, using presence-only data. The approach can be readily applied to other central-place foragers.
KEY WORDS: Steller sea lion · Critical habitat · Endangered species · Ecosystem management · Habitat model · Skewness · Bering Sea · Gulf of Alaska
Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherMar Ecol Prog Ser 365: [247][248][249][250][251][252][253][254][255][256][257][258][259][260][261] 2008 These studies have been effective primarily because the extent of the telemetry data matched the foraging range of the species under investigation. However, telemetry data on Steller sea lions have been collected at only a few sites and for a relatively small number of juveniles and adult females, and provides an incomplete picture of seasonal changes in distribution because tag deployment and duration of attachment is influenced by the timing of moult (Raum-Suryan et al. 2004, Pitcher et al. 2005. Given the evidence of site and season-specific foraging (Loughlin et al. 1998, Raum-Suryan et al. 2002, Gende & Sigler 2006, ecological signals relevant to identifying sea lion habitat may be obscured if telemetry data are combined from different sites or generalized from a single season. Consequently, combined telemetry data may no...