Development of Forecast System for the Upwelled Coastal Cold Waters in the Eastern Coast of Korea

Abstract

In this study, a forecast system for the occurrence of cold waters in the eastern coast of Korea was developed by combining the ROMS ocean model and the WRF regional atmospheric model. The 1-day hindcast and 3.5-day forecasts from April 1 to August 31, 2021, successfully reproduced and forecasted the temporal and spatial changes of coastal cold waters. Three case studies with different surface boundary conditions in the ROMS model confirmed that the wind is a primary driver for the occurrence of cold waters in the region. The performance of the ROMS was improved by high-resolution WRF outputs, and through error correction using the water temperature data from the real-time stations, the average RMSE of 9 stations for Forecast Day-3 was 0.73℃, indicating a prossibility of high-precision forecast.