Development of good practice guidance for quantification of thermal-hydraulic code model input uncertainty

Baccou, Jean; Zhang, Jinzhao; Fillion, Philippe; Damblin, Guillaume; Petruzzi, A.; Mendizábal, Rafael; Reventós, F.; Skorek, T.; Couplet, Mathieu; Iooss, Bertrand; Oh, Dong Yeol; Takeda, Takeshi

doi:10.1016/j.nucengdes.2019.110173

Cited by 27 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…whose exact values are unknown. The probability distributions of these inputs can be obtained from data and expert knowledge, or by solving inverse problems on experimental data (Baccou et al, 2019).…”

Section: A Nuclear Safety Applicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Information Geometry Approach to Robustness Analysis for the Uncertainty Quantification of Computer Codes

et al. 2021

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HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of scientific research documents, whether they are published or not. The documents may come from teaching and research institutions in France or abroad, or from public or private research centers. L'archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d'enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés.

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Section: A Nuclear Safety Applicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Information Geometry Approach to Robustness Analysis for the Uncertainty Quantification of Computer Codes

et al. 2021

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“…A number of techniques exist for assessing the importance of the input parameters in a BEPU analysis [25][26][27][28]. Here, importance may be understood as an influence on the figures-of-merit (PCT).…”

Section: Sensitivity Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

BEPU Analysis in LBLOCA Safety Review Calculation

Sun

Wang

et al. 2021

Sustainability

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Deterministic safety analysis (DSA) is essential for nuclear power plant licensing. The conservative method followed CFR50 Appendix K, which will lead to a large margin. As one of the DSA methodologies, best estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) generates more realistic results that can be used in the license application of nuclear power plants (NPPs). However, uncertainty evaluation of parameters is needed in BEPU. In this article, the safety regulatory focuses on the large break loss of coolant accident (LBLOCA) of an advanced PWR. The BEPU analysis is mainly performed by TRACE V5.0 patch 4 code, and the uncertainty analysis is conducted based on DAKOTA code. For correlation coefficients analysis, the sample size is enlarged reasonably. According to the results, this NPP meets the acceptance criteria effectively in LBLOCA with enough margin. By statistic assessment, the set of PCTs calculated has typical normal distribution characters. Based on BEPU, the uncertainties of parameters are studied. Additionally, the influence of sample size on the correlation of parameters is considered too. It could be seen that more samples could permit a more accurate estimation for Spearman partial correlation coefficient (abbreviated as SPCC). The conclusions of this article can provide technical support for the subsequent review of the safety analysis report and the design changes of NPPs.

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“…whose exact values are unknown. The probability distributions of these inputs can be obtained from data, from expert knowledge or recovered by solving inverse problems on an experimental database (Baccou et al, 2019).…”

Section: A Nuclear Safety Casementioning

confidence: 99%

An information geometry approach for robustness analysis in uncertainty quantification of computer codes

Gauchy,

Stenger,

Sueur

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Robustness analysis is an emerging field in the domain of uncertainty quantification. It consists of analysing the response of a computer model with uncertain inputs to the perturbation of one or several of its input distributions. Thus, a practical robustness analysis methodology should rely on a coherent definition of a distribution perturbation. This paper addresses this issue by exposing a rigorous way of perturbing densities. The proposed methodology is based on the Fisher distance on manifolds of probability distributions. A numerical method to calculate perturbed densities in practice is presented. This method comes from Lagrangian mechanics and consists of solving an ordinary differential equations system. This perturbation definition is then used to compute quantile-oriented robustness indices. The resulting Perturbed-Law based Indices (PLI) are illustrated on several numerical models. This methodology is also applied to an industrial study (simulation of a loss of coolant accident in a nuclear reactor), where several tens of the model physical parameters are uncertain with limited knowledge concerning their distributions.

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Development of good practice guidance for quantification of thermal-hydraulic code model input uncertainty

Cited by 27 publications

References 18 publications

An Information Geometry Approach to Robustness Analysis for the Uncertainty Quantification of Computer Codes

An Information Geometry Approach to Robustness Analysis for the Uncertainty Quantification of Computer Codes

BEPU Analysis in LBLOCA Safety Review Calculation

An information geometry approach for robustness analysis in uncertainty quantification of computer codes

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