Groundwater resource sustainability faces significant
challenges due to groundwater overdraft and waterlogging. Here we
propose a novel framework for evaluating the sustainability of
groundwater resources. The framework incorporates a dynamic calculation
of the ecological groundwater depth (EGWD) at the grid scale,
considering multiple protective targets. To quantitatively evaluate the
groundwater sustainability, we utilize reliability, resilience, and
vulnerability, to measure the frequency, duration, and extent of
unsatisfactory conditions. We apply this framework to the lower part of
Tao’er River Basin in China. During the non-growth period and growth
period, the upper thresholds of the EGWD range from 1.16 to 2.05 meters
and 1.16 to 4.05 meters, respectively. The lower thresholds range from
6.28 to 33.54 meters and 4.87 to 30.72 meters, respectively. Future
climate change improves reliability performances in regions with deep
groundwater depths. Although the precipitation infiltration increases in
future scenarios, prolonged duration and enhanced intensity of extreme
climate events lead to decreased resilience and vulnerability
performances under climate change. The proportion of areas with
resilience values less than 1/12 expands to 2~3 times
that of the historical scenario. Furthermore, we observe that more areas
face the dual challenges of groundwater depletion and waterlogging under
future climate change, particularly in high-emission scenarios. This
study enhances understanding of groundwater resource sustainability by
considering the spatial-temporal distribution of the EGWD, climate
change impacts, and the identification of key regions for management.
The insights can inform the development of effective strategies for
sustainable groundwater resource management.