Development of Models for Predicting the Probability of Bankruptcy in the Context of Business Financial Security

Abstract

Forecasting is one of the most important stages in planning future policies to ensure economic security. And countering the financial insolvency of an enterprise should begin with predicting the risk of this phenomenon. The risk of bankruptcy is predicted using domestic and foreign models for predicting potential threats to the organization's financial security. However, many of these models are outdated or not focused on the conditions of our country's economy, which affects the reliability of the results obtained and the effectiveness of decisions based on them. In this regard, there is an increased need to develop new models for identifying signs of bankruptcy and the pre-crisis state of the organization, which could form a more reliable opinion about the financial condition of the object for rapid measures to bring the business out of a crisis or unfavorable state.