Development of Optimal Water-Resources Management Strategies for Kaidu-Kongque Watershed under Multiple Uncertainties

Abstract

In this study, an interval-stochastic fractile optimization (ISFO) model is advanced for developing optimal water-resources management strategies under multiple uncertainties. The ISFO model can not only handle uncertainties presented in terms of probability distributions and intervals with possibility distribution boundary, but also quantify subjective information (i.e., expected system benefit preference and risk-averse attitude) from different decision makers. The ISFO model is then applied to a real case of water-resources systems planning in Kaidu-kongque watershed, China, and a number of scenarios with different ecological water-allocation policies under variedp-necessity fractiles are analyzed. Results indicate that different policies for ecological water allocation can lead to varied water supplies, economic penalties, and system benefits. The solutions obtained can help decision makers identify optimized water-allocation alternatives, alleviate the water supply-demand conflict, and achieve socioeconomic and ecological sustainability, particularly when limited water resources are available for multiple competing users.

Review of Mathematical Programming Applications in Water Resource Management Under Uncertainty

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Integrated Modeling Approach for Sustainable Land-Water-Food Nexus Management

“…The fractile optimization (FO) approach based on the fuzzy possibilistic programming (FPP) can effectively address uncertainties expressed as possibility distributions, while its necessity is described as the treatment of an objective function [48][49][50]. A general FPP model with ambiguous coefficients in the objective function can be formulated as follows [51,52]:…”

“…where A ∈ {R} m×n , B ∈ {R} m×1 , C ∈ {R} 1×n , X ∈ {R} n×1 , R means a set of variables and parameter coefficient; C ∼ represents the fuzzy possibilistic variables restricted by fuzzy triangular numbers with possibility distribution. Generally, possibility distribution can be regarded as a fuzzy membership function, and possibility degree can be considered to be the membership value [52]. In virtue of the computational efficiency and simplicity in data acquisition, a symmetric triangular fuzzy number C ∼ is considered, which can be determined by a center c c and a spread w, and can be described as C ∼ = (c c , w).…”

An Inexact Inventory Theory-Based Water Resources Distribution Model for Yuecheng Reservoir, China

“…Over the past decades, a number of simulation and optimization methods were developed for reservoir water resources management under uncertainty [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19]. Among them, inexact two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) is effective for analyzing policy scenarios, and taking corrective actions after a random event has taken place in order to minimize "penalties" that may appear due to incorrect policy [11].…”