Development of probabilistic models for quantitative pathway analysis of plant pest introduction for the EU territory

Holt, John; Leach, Adrian; Mumford, John; MacLeod, Alan; Tomlinson, D. L.; Baker, Richard; Christodoulou, Magdalini; Russo, Lucio Lo; Maréchal, Anne

doi:10.2903/sp.efsa.2016.en-1062

Cited by 6 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 125 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The connectivity indices used here represent a tractable simplification of the structure of real world transport networks and the processes by which invasive species are dispersed (Banks et al, ; Holt et al, ; Moslonka‐Lefebvre et al, ; Seebens et al, ). Nevertheless, they offer a powerful approach for analysing the connections between trade flows and invasion.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Global trade networks determine the distribution of invasive non‐native species

Chapman

Purse

Roy

et al. 2017

Global Ecol Biogeogr

211

202

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Aim Although global trade is implicated in biological invasions, the assumption that trade networks explain the large‐scale distributions of non‐native species remains largely untested. We addressed this by analysing relationships between global trade networks and plant pest invasion. Location Forty‐eight countries in Europe and the Mediterranean. Time period Current. Major taxa studied Four hundred and twenty‐two non‐native plant pests (173 invertebrates, 166 pathogens, 83 plants). Methods Ten types of connectivity index were developed, representing potential roles of trade networks, air transport links, geographical proximity, climatic similarity and source country wealth in facilitating invasion. Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) identified the connectivity index that best explained both historical and recent invasion. Then, more complex GLMMs were developed including connectivity through trade networks for multiple commodities relevant for pests (live plants, forest products, fruit and vegetables and seeds) and species’ transport associations with those commodities. Results Total import volumes, species’ global prevalence and connectivity measures based on air transport, geographical distance or climate did not explain invasion as well as connectivity through global trade networks. Invasion was strongly promoted by agricultural imports from countries in which the focal species was present and that were climatically similar to the importing country. However, live plant imports from nearby countries provided a better explanation of the most recent invasions. Connectivity through multiple trade networks predicted invasion better than total agricultural trade, and there was support for our hypothesis that species known to be transported with a particular network had greater sensitivity to its connectivity. Main conclusions Our findings show that patterns of invasion are governed to a large extent by global trade networks connecting source areas for non‐native species and the dispersal of those species through multiple trade networks. This enhances potential for developing a predictive framework to improve risk assessment, biosecurity and surveillance for invasions.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The connectivity indices used here represent a tractable simplification of the structure of real world transport networks and the processes by which invasive species are dispersed (Banks et al, 2015;Holt et al, 2016;Moslonka-Lefebvre et al, 2010;Seebens et al, 2013).…”

Section: Previous Studies Of Links Between Trade and Invasion Have Oftenmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global trade networks determine the distribution of invasive non‐native species

Chapman

Purse

Roy

et al. 2017

Global Ecol Biogeogr

211

202

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The model is elaborated using four example case studies of specific pest-commodity combinations. Initial development of a pathway model was commissioned by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) with terms of reference to provide EFSA with probabilistic models for quantitative pathway analysis of plant pest introduction for European Union (EU) territory through the importation of edible plant products (for food and feed) (Holt et al, 2016). The specification included the requirement to develop case studies for pome, stone and citrus fruits and a cereal, and to include all treatments, transportation, processing and distribution of the plant product (including losses, waste products and by-products) from country of origin up to the point where an opportunity exists for transfer of the pest to a suitable host at a vulnerable stage of growth in the EU.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Eurostat databases contain trade between all recognized countries of the globe and the model was developed to consider potential pest sources in any number of extra-EU 2 countries. A full report of the work is provided in Holt et al (2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A quantitative model for trade pathway analysis of plant pest entry and transfer to a host in European Union territory

Holt

Leach

MacLeod³

et al. 2017

EPPO Bulletin

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A quantitative pathway model, QPAFood, has been designed to support risk assessment for plant pest entry into European Union (EU) territory on a range of edible plant commodities via trade flows. The model calculates the distribution of an imported infested/infected commodity along a pathway into and within the EU from source countries, based on Eurostat data and other data/information. The model determines the implications of global trade pathways for the potential arrival of the infested commodity in the EU28 Member States. Within each Member State, the calculation proceeds by distributing the commodity according to uses, notably retail or processing, to the vulnerable area of commercial host crops determined in each NUTS2 region and then quantifies the consequent potential for pest–host contact which could lead to pest transfer. Annual and monthly estimates of contact risk are tabulated and visualized for Member States and NUTS2 regions. The model was developed originally for the European Food Safety Authority using four case studies of specific pest–commodity combinations. These pests had relatively limited host ranges and the model has now been extended in the context of the EC FP7 DROPSA project for the multiple commodity pathways associated with the highly polyphagous fruit pest Drosophila suzukii.

show abstract

“…EPPO, 2011) and risk assessment projects [e.g. PRATIQUE (Baker, 2011), Prima phacie (MacLeod et al, 2012), PPM Pirates (Holt et al, 2016), QPA food (Holt et al, 2016) QPA non-food (Douma et al, 2016)], to develop and test:…”

Section: Fit-for-purpose Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Guidance on quantitative pest risk assessment

Jeger¹,

Bragard²,

Caffier³

et al. 2018

EFS2

243

260

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This Guidance describes a two-phase approach for a fit-for-purpose method for the assessment of plant pest risk in the territory of the EU. Phase one consists of pest categorisation to determine whether the pest has the characteristics of a quarantine pest or those of a regulated non-quarantine pest for the area of the EU. Phase two consists of pest risk assessment, which may be requested by the risk managers following the pest categorisation results. This Guidance provides a template for pest categorisation and describes in detail the use of modelling and expert knowledge elicitation to conduct a pest risk assessment. The Guidance provides support and a framework for assessors to provide quantitative estimates, together with associated uncertainties, regarding the entry, establishment, spread and impact of plant pests in the EU. The Guidance allows the effectiveness of risk reducing options (RROs) to be quantitatively assessed as an integral part of the assessment framework. A list of RROs is provided. A two-tiered approach is proposed for the use of expert knowledge elicitation and modelling. Depending on data and resources available and the needs of risk managers, pest entry, establishment, spread and impact steps may be assessed directly, using weight of evidence and quantitative expert judgement (first tier), or they may be elaborated in substeps using quantitative models (second tier). An example of an application of the first tier approach is provided. Guidance is provided on how to derive models of appropriate complexity to conduct a second tier assessment. Each assessment is operationalised using Monte Carlo simulations that can compare scenarios for relevant factors, e.g. with or without RROs. This document provides guidance on how to compare scenarios to draw conclusions on the magnitude of pest risks and the effectiveness of RROs and on how to communicate assessment results.

show abstract

Development of probabilistic models for quantitative pathway analysis of plant pest introduction for the EU territory

Cited by 6 publications

References 125 publications

Global trade networks determine the distribution of invasive non‐native species

Global trade networks determine the distribution of invasive non‐native species

A quantitative model for trade pathway analysis of plant pest entry and transfer to a host in European Union territory

Guidance on quantitative pest risk assessment

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About