Development of python-FALL3D: a modified procedure for modelling volcanic ash dispersal in the Asia-Pacific region

Bear-Crozier, Adele; Kartadinata, Nugraha; Heriwaseso, Anjar; Nielsen, Ole Bækgaard

doi:10.1007/s11069-012-0273-7

Cited by 12 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Simpson et al 2011). Quantitative approaches have typically considered a single source or site of interest at a local scale with any determined probabilities conditional on an eruption from that volcano occurring (Bonadonna et al 2005;Jenkins et al 2008;Costa et al 2009;Folch and Sulpizio 2010;Bear-Crozier et al 2012). Jenkins et al (2012a;2012b) developed a probabilistic framework for assessing ash fall hazard on a regional-scale (100's of km) by upscaling the ASHFALL dispersion model for regionalscale applications (Hurst 1994;Hurst and Turner 1999).…”

Section: Previous Probabilistic Ash Hazard Assessments In the Asia-pamentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis (PVAHA) II: assessment of the Asia-Pacific region using VAPAH

et al. 2016

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Volcanic ash is an increasingly common, long-range hazard, impacting on our globalised society. The Asia-Pacific region is rapidly developing as a major contributor to the global population and economy and is home to one-quarter of the world's active volcanoes. Here we present a regional-scale volcanic ash hazard assessment for the Asia-Pacific using a newly developed framework for Probabilistic Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis (PVAHA). This PVAHA was undertaken using the Volcanic Ash Probabilistic Assessment of Hazard (VAPAH) algorithm. The VAPAH algorithm considered a magnitude-frequency distribution of eruptions and associated volcanic ash load attenuation relationships for the Asia-Pacific, and integrated across all possible events to arrive at an annual exceedance probability for sites of interest. The Asia-Pacific region was divided into six sub-regions (e.g. Indonesia, Philippines and Southeast Asia, Melanesia/Australia, Japan/Taiwan, New Zealand/Samoa/Tonga/Fiji and Russia/China/Mongolia/ Korea) characterised by 276 source volcanoes each with individual magnitude-frequency relationships. Sites for analysis within the Asia-Pacific region were limited to land-based locations at 1-km grid spacing, within 500 km of a volcanic source. The Indonesian sub-region exhibited the greatest volcanic ash hazard in the region at the 100-year timeframe, with additional sources (in Japan, the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, Kamchatka -Russia and New Zealand) along plate boundaries manifesting a high degree of hazard at the 10,000-year timeframe. Disaggregation of the volcanic ash hazard for individual sites of interest provided insight into the primary causal factors for volcanic ash hazard at capital cities in Papua New Guinea, the Philippines and Japan. This PVAHA indicated that volcanic ash hazard for Port Moresby was relatively low at all timeframes. In contrast to this, Jakarta, Manila and Tokyo are characterised by high degrees hazard at all timeframes. The greatest hazard was associated with Tokyo and the PVAHA was able to quantify that the large number of sources impacting on this location was the causal factor contributing to the hazard. This evidence-based approach provides important insights for decision makers responsible for strategic planning and can assist with prioritising regions of interest for more detailed volcanic ash hazard modelling and local scale planning.

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Section: Previous Probabilistic Ash Hazard Assessments In the Asia-pamentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis (PVAHA) II: assessment of the Asia-Pacific region using VAPAH

et al. 2016

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“…Campi Flegrei, Italy (Costa et al 2009); Gunung Gede, Indonesia (Bear-Crozier et al 2012); Okataina, New Zealand (Jenkins et al 2008); Somma-Vesuvio, Italy (Folch and Sulpizio 2010) and Tarawera, New Zealand (Bonadonna and Houghton 2005). Numerical simulations of volcanic ash fallout generally involve running a deterministic eruptive scenario that represents the most likely event (based on historical investigation and/or modern analogues) over a period of time sufficiently large as to capture all possible meteorological conditions (Magill et al 2006;Folch et al 2008a;Folch et al 2008b;Folch and Sulpizio 2010;Bear-Crozier et al 2012) Regional-scale probabilistic volcanic ash hazard assessments are less common (Yokoyama et al 1984;Hoblitt et al 1987;Hurst 1994;Hurst and Turner 1999;Magill et al 2006;Ewert 2007). (Jenkins et al 2012a;Jenkins et al 2012b) employed a stochastic simulation technique that up-scales implementation of the ash dispersal model ASHFALL for regional-scale assessments (Hurst 1994;Hurst and Turner 1999).…”

Section: Previous Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Numerous approaches have been adopted in the past to assess volcanic ash hazard at the local-scale (10s km) including observational, statistical, deterministic and probabilistic techniques (Bonadonna et al 2002a;Bonadonna et al 2002b;Blong 2003;Bonadonna and Houghton 2005;Costa et al 2006;Magill et al 2006;Jenkins et al 2008;Costa et al 2009;Folch et al 2009;Folch and Sulpizio 2010;Simpson et al 2011;Bear-Crozier et al 2012;Jenkins et al 2012a;Jenkins et al 2012b). However, incomplete historical data on the magnitude and frequency of eruptions worldwide and the difficulties associated with upscaling computationally intensive volcanic ash dispersal models have limited regional or global scale assessments (100 s km).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis (PVAHA) I: development of the VAPAH tool for emulating multi-scale volcanic ash fall analysis

et al. 2016

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Significant advances have been made in recent years in probabilistic analysis of geological hazards. Analyses of this kind are concerned with producing estimates of the probability of occurrence of a hazard at a site given the location, magnitude, and frequency of hazardous events around that site; in particular Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). PSHA is a method for assessing and expressing the probability of earthquake hazard for a site of interest, at multiple spatial scales, in terms of probability of exceeding certain ground motion intensities. Probabilistic methods for multi-scale volcanic ash hazard assessment are less developed. The modelling framework presented here, Probabilistic Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis (PVAHA), adapts the seismologically based PSHA technique for volcanic ash. PVAHA considers a magnitude-frequency distribution of eruptions and associated volcanic ash load attenuation relationships and integrates across all possible events to arrive at an annual exceedance probability for each site across a region of interest. The development and implementation of the Volcanic Ash Probabilistic Assessment tool for Hazard (VAPAH), as a mechanism for facilitating multi-scale PVAHA, is also introduced. VAPAH outputs are aggregated to generate maps that visualise the expected volcanic ash hazard for sites across a region at timeframes of interest and disaggregated to determine the causal factors which dominate volcanic ash hazard at individual sites. VAPAH can be used to identify priority areas for more detailed PVAHA or local scale ash dispersal modelling that can be used to inform disaster risk reduction efforts.

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“…The TephraProb package aligns with recent efforts to bridge gaps between academic and operational contexts (Bartolini et al 2013;Bear-Crozier et al 2012;Felpeto et al 2007). It provides a set of flexible tools for the assessment of tephra hazard and designed to compile comprehensive assessments in a wide range of conditions (e.g.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

TephraProb: a Matlab package for probabilistic hazard assessments of tephra fallout

et al. 2016

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TephraProb is a toolbox of Matlab functions designed to produce scenario-based probabilistic hazard assessments for ground tephra accumulation based on the Tephra2 model. The toolbox includes a series of graphical user interfaces that collect, analyze and pre-process input data, create distributions of eruption source parameters based on a wide range of probabilistic eruption scenarios, run Tephra2 using the generated input scenarios and provide results as exceedence probability maps, probabilistic isomass maps and hazard curves. We illustrate the functionality of TephraProb using the 2011 eruption of Cordón Caulle volcano (Chile) and selected eruptions of La Fossa volcano (Vulcano Island, Italy). The range of eruption styles captured by these two events highlights the potential of TephraProb as an operative tool when rapid hazard assessments are required during volcanic crises.

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Development of python-FALL3D: a modified procedure for modelling volcanic ash dispersal in the Asia-Pacific region

Cited by 12 publications

References 27 publications

Probabilistic Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis (PVAHA) II: assessment of the Asia-Pacific region using VAPAH

Probabilistic Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis (PVAHA) II: assessment of the Asia-Pacific region using VAPAH

Probabilistic Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis (PVAHA) I: development of the VAPAH tool for emulating multi-scale volcanic ash fall analysis

TephraProb: a Matlab package for probabilistic hazard assessments of tephra fallout

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