Development of rainfall – runoff model for extreme storm events in the Bagmati River Basin, Nepal

Abstract

This study is based on the Bagmati river basin that flows along with the capital city, Kathmandu which is a small and topographically steep basin. Major flood occurring in 1993 and 2002 as stated in the report of DWIDP shows that the basin is subjected to water-induced disaster in monsoon season affecting people and property. This study focuses on the development of a rainfall-runoff model for Bagmati basin in HEC-HMS using the Synthetic Unit Hydrograph (SUH) with Khokana as the outlet. The coefficients for SUH like Lag time coefficient (Ct), peak discharge coefficient (Cp), unit hydrograph widths at 50% and 75% of peak and base time were determined calibrating the Synder’s equation where Ct varies from 0.244 to 1.016 and Cp varies from 0.439 to 0.410. The rainfall-runoff model in HEC-HMS has been calibrated from daily data of 1992-2013 and validated from hourly data for July 2011, August 2012, and July 2013. Furthermore, the model has been tested to compare the discharge for various return periods with the observed ones which are in close agreement. The determination of Peak Maximum Flood (PMF) using the calculated Peak Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is also another application of the model which can be used to design various hydraulic structures. Thus the values of coefficients, Ct and Cp can be used to construct unit hydrograph for the basin. Moreover, the satisfactory performance of the model during calibration and validation proves the applicability of the model in flood forecasting and early warning.

Assessment of Climate Change Effects on the Hydrological Regime of Bagmati River Basin using SWAT Model

“…In the case of watersheds, the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of hydrogeologic characteristics within it poses more challenges for water resource management (Strayer et al, 2003;Bloschl and Sivapalan, 1995). Floods, particularly during the monsoon months of July and August, pose significant challenges in Nepal due to heavy precipitation, highly undulated topography with high altitudinal variation, and poor urban planning and design (Devkota and Shakya, 2021). The Bagmati River's carrying capacity is insufficient, as it cannot even cater to 1/5 𝑡 ℎ of its peak flow.…”