Development of real-time flood forecast model for vamsadhara river through hydrological approach

Abstract

River floods are usually caused by a combination of wind-driven flood surges, low barometric pressure, and massive waves colliding with high upstream river flows. These floods are known to be the most devastating natural hazards. In India, wide sectoral and regional variables impact country climate change adaptability [1]. According to Markus et al. [2] climate change effects in the catchment, this change in climate is the leading cause of floods, mostly due to deforestation, urbanization, etc. *Author for correspondence Statistics suggest that floods account for almost 15% of all deaths from natural disasters and that the economic damages caused by floods have been seen to surpass billions of dollars worldwide, not just in developed countries in Asia but also in the countries of the European Union [3].The occurrence of catastrophic weather conditions in recent years has proven the need of realistic flood models, which function as early warning systems in severe storm situations, reducing economic damage. An early warning system comprises both structural and non-structural measures. While structural incorporates physical construction of embankments, canals, and so on, non structural initiatives include

Unsteady flow analysis using hydrological and hydraulic models for real-time flood forecasting in the Vamsadhara river basin

“…HMS determined the flood flows at each reach of the river during flood occurrences in 2006, 2010, and 2013. So, the model's performance was checked and found to be good (Mahapatra et al 2021).…”

“…During the calibration process, the pre-set values for these parameters were fine-tuned to the measured value by comparing simulated results with real-time data that had acceptable range indicators that were confirmed by the model's statistical performance (Mahapatra et al 2021), while fitting the computed discharge values with historical data at gauge stations in the basin. In Table 3, the calibrated parameters CN, K, and x were computed for the run in 2006.…”

“…Horritt et al (2007), Anees et al (2016), and Montané et al (2017) demonstrated the benefit of hydraulic modeling in simulating flood events, estimating vulnerable areas, and identifying flood hazard zones, all of which are required components of developing any flood and risk management strategy involving 1D or 2D flow. Earlier studies have shown that a continuously simulated hydrological and hydrodynamic 1D steady-flow model can predict flood hazard zones (Sindhu & Rao 2016;Mahapatra et al 2021). As floods are so unpredictable, an unsteady flow analysis seems to be the best technique to visualize flood hazard zones.…”