Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, São Francisco and the Paraná River basins

Marengo, José A.; Chou, Sin Chan; Kay, Gillian; Alves, Lincoln M.; Pesquero, José; Soares, Wagner R.; Santos, Daniel Caetano; Lyra, André; Sueiro, Gustavo; Betts, Richard; Chagas, Diego; Gomes, Jorge L.; Bustamante, Josiane F.; Tavares, Priscila

doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1155-5

Cited by 298 publications

(307 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…Meteorological data were obtained from the regional climate model ETA 40 CTRL (control member), based on the future climatic scenario A1B, and provided by the National Institute for Space Research, INPE Marengo et al, 2012).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future irrigation water requirements in the Ijuí River basin, RS

Silva

Siqueira

Adam

et al. 2018

Rev. bras. eng. agríc. ambient.

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A B S T R A C TChanges in temperature and precipitation intensity and frequency have influenced the water demand for irrigation. Regions that have agriculture-based economies, as in the Ijuí River basin, are often affected by periods of drought or excessive rainfall, which is harmful for agricultural productivity. This study aimed to evaluate future irrigation water demands of four crops in this basin (bean, corn, wheat and soybean), comparing them with a baseline period. Meteorological data forecasts were obtained from the regional climate model ETA 40 CTRL for the climatic scenario A1B, for the baseline and future (2011-2100) periods. The one-dimensional SWAP model was used to estimate the water demand for irrigation. The results showed that, in the future, irrigation water requirements will be smaller for all crops. In the short term , water demands were similar to those for the baseline period, but from the middle of the century onwards (2041-2100), greater reductions were observed.Demandas futuras de água para irrigação na bacia hidrográfica do rio Ijuí, RS R E S U M O A alteração de temperatura e da intensidade e frequência dos índices pluviométricos tem influenciado a demanda de água para irrigação. Regiões que possuem sua economia voltada para a agricultura, como na bacia hidrográfica do rio Ijuí, são frequentemente afetadas por períodos de estiagem ou de excesso de chuva que prejudicam a produtividade agrícola. O presente trabalho teve como objetivo estimar as demandas futuras de água para irrigação em quatro culturas nesta bacia (feijão, milho, trigo e soja), comparando com um cenário atual. Os dados das projeções meteorológicas foram obtidos por meio do modelo climático regional ETA 40 CTRL, em um cenário futuro A1B, referentes ao período atual (1961-1990) e futuro (2011-2100). O modelo unidimensional SWAP foi utilizado para simular as demandas de água para irrigação. Os resultados mostraram que no futuro a necessidade de irrigação será menor para todas as culturas analisadas. Em curto prazo , as demandas se mantiveram próximo ao período atual. Contudo, da metade do século em diante (2041-2100) houve maiores reduções.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future irrigation water requirements in the Ijuí River basin, RS

Silva

Siqueira

Adam

et al. 2018

Rev. bras. eng. agríc. ambient.

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“…Three kilograms of fish per day is insufficient for providing a livelihood for artisanal fishers. Marengo et al (2012) predicted a 25% reduction in summer (fish spawning season) rainfall and annual mean temperature increase of 2.8°C for the RSF Basin by 2041-2070. Such reduction in summer rainfall will increase the recurrence interval of two consecutive years of major flood from 2 years to 10 years.…”

Section: Latin Americamentioning

confidence: 99%

International Perspectives on the Effects of Climate Change on Inland Fisheries

et al. 2016

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“…Even if precipitation does not change in the future, it is likely that the dry season will be longer and that the same amount of rain will fall in a shorter time span (Sampaio, personal communication). As well, climate instability is likely to increase in the Pantanal region as elsewhere in Brazil (Marengo et al, 2012). Under such a scenario impacts on biodiversity agriculture energy and water resources and health are to be expected (PBMC, 2013b).…”

Section: [Fig 1 About Here]mentioning

confidence: 99%

Institutional responses to climate change: opportunities and barriers for adaptation in the Pantanal and the Upper Paraguay River Basin

Ioris¹,

Irigaray²,

Girard³

2014

Climatic Change

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Climatic change is expected to have serious impacts on the Pantanal, a large tropical wetland located in the Upper Paraguay River Basin, in the centre of South America, where a range of institutional responses are being developed to mitigate and adapt to climate change. In order to examine the institutional achievements and challenges for managing the region, a specific typology is initially introduced, which comprises a schematic gradient of institutional responses. An empirical analysis was conducted in Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay, the three countries that share the Pantanal, which identified the hybrid basis of the policy framework under construction, in the sense that it actually combines elements of various institutional responses included in the proposed typology. Important factors that seem to undermine the efficacy of institutional responses in addressing climate change in the region are the strong influence of the agribusiness sector and the still relatively low importance of the Pantanal for national environmental policy-making. This essay makes a claim that the principles of climate justice should guiding policies and interventions as it they constitute the most appropriate strategy to address the inequality and unfairness related to climate change.

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Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, São Francisco and the Paraná River basins

Cited by 298 publications

References 51 publications

Future irrigation water requirements in the Ijuí River basin, RS

Future irrigation water requirements in the Ijuí River basin, RS

International Perspectives on the Effects of Climate Change on Inland Fisheries

Institutional responses to climate change: opportunities and barriers for adaptation in the Pantanal and the Upper Paraguay River Basin

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