Development of RODOS*, A  Comprehensive Decision Support System for Nuclear Emergencies in Europe - An Overview

Ehrhardt, J.; Päsler-Sauer, Jürgen; Schüle, O.; Benz, Gregory T.; dr.rafat, mohebifar; (Invited), J. Richter

doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.rpd.a082089

Cited by 29 publications

(9 citation statements)

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“…Now note that in lines (5)- (7), Panel G i :ũ t,i using equation (4). Each panel has enough information to do this, since line (10) guarantees that the scores are communicated to the panels overseeing father vertices and line (14) denotes the fact that the SB transmitsû t,i to the appropriate panels. The functionsũ t,i are then sent to the SB, who performs an optimization step in line (8) and communicates the result back to the panel.…”

Section: B Proof Of Theoremmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These used a variety of deterministic and stochastic methodologies to guide the estimation and the forecasting of the various quantities relevant to the domain under study (see e.g. Ehrhardt et al, 1993;Ehrhardt, 1997). Fully probabilistic component modules then began to be developed to communicate both the relevant panel's forecasts and their associated uncertainties.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Bayesian decision support for complex systems with many distributed experts

Leonelli

Smith

2015

Ann Oper Res

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Complex decision support systems often consist of component modules which, encoding the judgements of panels of domain experts, describe a particular sub-domain of the overall system. Ideally these modules need to be pasted together to provide a comprehensive picture of the whole process. The challenge of building such an integrated system is that, whilst the overall qualitative features are common knowledge to all, the explicit forecasts and their associated uncertainties are only expressed individually by each panel, resulting from its own analysis. The structure of the integrated system therefore needs to facilitate the coherent piecing together of these separate evaluations. If such a system is not available there is a serious danger that this might drive decision makers to incoherent and so indefensible policy choices. In this paper we develop a graphically based framework which embeds a set of conditions, consisting of the agreement usually made in practice of certain probability and utility models, that, if satisfied in a given context, are sufficient to ensure the composite system is truly coherent. Furthermore, we develop new message passing algorithms entailing the transmission of expected utility scores between the panels, that enable the uncertainties within each module to be fully accounted for in the evaluation of the available alternatives in these composite systems.

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Section: B Proof Of Theoremmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Bayesian decision support for complex systems with many distributed experts

Leonelli

Smith

2015

Ann Oper Res

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“…While much of its architecture is agreed, it should be noted that development is continuing and the following should not be taken as a definitive statement of its structure. For a fuller description of its current state than the sketch given here, see Ehrhardt et al (1993). Discussion of how the design of RODOS may be interpreted with a Bayesian framework may be found in French et al (1995).…”

Section: Decision Support Systems For Countermeasures In the Event Ofmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-attribute decision support in the event of a nuclear accident

French

1996

J. Multi-Crit. Decis. Anal.

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Retrospective studies of nuclear accidents such as those at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl have emphasized the need for preparing structured decision support methodologies for use in any future emergency. This paper discusses the multi-attribute aspects of such decision support, i.e. methods for supporting decisions when there are several conflicting objectives. Considerable progress has been made in application of these methods over the past 4 or 5 years. In particular, the decision-conferencing format has proved successful in helping senior decision makers understand and deal with the issues that arise in considering long-term countermeasures made. Within the RODOS project, a European initiative to build a decision support system for emergency response, multi-attribute value and utility techniques for short-term and medium-term countermeasures are being developed. However, much remains to be done, particularly in relation to the incorporation of uncertainty when there is a risk of an imminent accident.

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“…This SDSS focuses on environmental and agri-economic impacts in agricultural and semi-natural food production systems using a series of case-study areas in Scotland. It is the first system of it's kind to be developed, though the potential benefits of using decision support systems (DSS) in post-emergency management are recognized (Morrey et al, 1996) and a generic Europe-wide DSS for off-site emergency management has been in development since 1990 (Ehrhardt et al, 1993).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%