Development of SAB model for predicting mortality in intensive care unit after aortic aneurysm surgery

Abstract

Background: Aortic aneurysm (AA) patients after vascular surgery are at high risk of death, some of them need intensive care. Our aim was to develop a simplified model with baseline data within 24 hours of intensive care unit (ICU) admission to early predict mortality.Methods: Univariate analysis and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator were used to select important variables, which were then taken into logistic regression to fit the model. Discrimination and validation were used to evaluate the performance of the model. Bootstrap method was conducted to perform internal validation. Finally, decision clinical analysis curve was used to test the clinical usefulness of the model. Results:We obtained baseline data of 482 AA patients from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III database, 33 (6.8%) of whom died in ICU. Our final model contained three variables and was called SAB model based on initials of three items [Sepsis, Anion gap, Bicarbonate (SAB)]. Area under the curve of SAB was 0.904 (95% CI: 0.841-0.967) while brier score was 0.043 (95% CI: 0.028-0.057). After internal validation, corrected area under the curve was 0.898 and brier score was 0.045, which showed good prediction ability of SAB model. The model can be assessed on https://vascularmodel.shinyapps.io/ AorticAneurysm/.Conclusions: SAB model derived in this study can be easily used to predict in-ICU mortality of AA patients after surgery precisely.