Development of standard loss analysis model using big data

Abstract

The Republic of Korea Army conducts simulations during peacetime using ground operation resource requirements analysis model (GORRAM) to determine potential losses when at war based on the latest operation plan. Although war-game simulation can yield reliable results, it takes considerable amount of time and effort to build a database and generate scenarios. Therefore, a study is required to supplement the detailed war-game simulation method to quickly determine expected losses. Using data built-in GORRAM, we tested the significance of four factors using beta regression analysis. While multiple regression is most commonly used to model the causality, beta regression is a powerful method for modeling response variables in the (0,1) range, such as the loss ratio. We verified that three factors, namely ‘topography’, ‘operational posture’, and ‘friend/foe power ratio’ were related to loss. This study proposes a new method for calculating the expected loss in real-time, overcoming a limitation of existing war-game simulation methods.