2011
DOI: 10.5194/hess-15-2145-2011
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Development of streamflow projections under changing climate conditions over Colorado River basin headwaters

Abstract: Abstract. The current drought over the Colorado River Basin has raised concerns that the US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) may impose water shortages over the lower portion of the basin for the first time in history. The guidelines that determine levels of shortage are affected by relatively short-term (3 to 7 month) forecasts determined by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) using the National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecasting System (RFS) hydrologic model. … Show more

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Cited by 25 publications
(19 citation statements)
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“…We found disagreement among models with regard to discharge characteristics within stream gage sites. Also, the projections do not account for current or future regulation of streams (Miller et al, 2011), so much of the future variation in hydrological variables is not included. The relative magnitude of changes, however, is useful for this analysis, assuming that changes in water use will be consistent across the region.…”
Section: Hydrological Projectionsmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…We found disagreement among models with regard to discharge characteristics within stream gage sites. Also, the projections do not account for current or future regulation of streams (Miller et al, 2011), so much of the future variation in hydrological variables is not included. The relative magnitude of changes, however, is useful for this analysis, assuming that changes in water use will be consistent across the region.…”
Section: Hydrological Projectionsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The projections use bias-corrected spatial downscaled precipitation and temperature data from the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). The precipitation and temperature data were incorporated into a National Weather Service River Forecasting System (NWS RFS) model, along with evapotranspiration demand, which was estimated using the Variable Infiltration and Capacity (VIC) model, to produce hydrological projections (Miller et al, 2011). The projections, produced by the NWS RFS model, were bias-corrected by ensuring that means from the NWS RFS models, forced with observed temperature and precipitation data, had the same average as models forced with projected data across the same period.…”
Section: Hydrological Analysesmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…Most studies indicate that hydrological processes may be sensitive to changes in precipitation and temperature [15][16][17][18], which are the main climate variables. Changes of temperature have a strong impact on evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and the thermal circulation of the atmosphere, and, thus, on surface runoff and baseflow, as well as on crop production.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%