Development of the Latvian energy sector competitiveness system dynamic model

Skribans, Valerijs; Balodis, Māris

doi:10.3846/bm.2016.12

Cited by 6 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Figure 9 presents the architecture of this model (Skribans 2010). Latvia is situated at a strategic point-at the crossroads of the east-west energy trade.…”

Section: Latvian Energy System Its Development Objectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Energy System of the Baltic States and its Development

Šliogerienė

2014

Global Sustainable Communities Handbook

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“…Figure 9 presents the architecture of this model (Skribans 2010). Latvia is situated at a strategic point-at the crossroads of the east-west energy trade.…”

Section: Latvian Energy System Its Development Objectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Main blocks of Latvia's energy sector(Skribans 2010).Year of EU entry: 2004Member of Schengen Area Political system: Republic Capital city: Riga Total area: 65 000 km² Population: 2.220 million Latvia is situated on the southern coast of the Baltic Sea. It has a coastline of 500 km and welldeveloped ports.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy System of the Baltic States and its Development

Šliogerienė

2014

Global Sustainable Communities Handbook

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“…Regression methods make forecasts based on realistic influencing factors and use statistical information to determine the relationships. These interrelations may change in the course of time or due to external impacts, which are difficult to reflect in regression methods (Skribans, 2010).…”

Section: Justification Of the Selected Modelling Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Basically, these methods take into account only the historical trends, which may change in the future. Consequently, these methods are mainly suitable for short-term forecasting of the sector (up to one and a half years) (Skribans, 2010).…”

Section: Justification Of the Selected Modelling Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of a System Dynamics Model for Evaluation of the Impact of Integration of Renewable Energy Sources on the Operational Efficiency of Energy Supply Facilities: Theoretical Background

Balodis

Skribans

Ivanova

2016

Economics and Business

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-Nowadays, energy companies operate in a highly competitive environment. To maintain the leader position, as a reaction to various changes energy companies must take appropriate steps in a timely manner.Correct assessment of the situation ensures implementation of adequate measures. The situation can be assessed correctly by using a complex approach and/or analysing it according to the specific circumstances. The complex approach also envisages designing of an appropriate model, which studies the impact of changes on the research object, while dealing with the object within a system and as part of the system.The article gives a theoretical background of the system dynamics model in order to evaluate the impact of integration of renewable energy sources (RES) on the operational efficiency of energy supply facilities (power and heat supply) on the national and regional levels, as well as provides the first modelling results.

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“…Lang (2006). In Latvia, a new approach to forecast energy sector based on the system dynamics was developed (Skribans & Balodis, 2016).…”

Section: B Approaches For Modelling Of Expectationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Electricity Price Expectations in a Day-Ahead Market: A Case of Latvia

Bobinaitė

Zuters

2016

Economics and Business

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-The paper aims at modelling the electricity generator's expectations about price development in the Latvian day-ahead electricity market. Correlation and sensitivity analysis methods are used to identify the key determinants of electricity price expectations. A neural network approach is employed to model electricity price expectations. The research results demonstrate that electricity price expectations depend on the historical electricity prices. The price a day ago is the key determinant of price expectations and the importance of the lagged prices reduces as the time backwards lengthens. Nine models of electricity price expectations are prepared for different natural seasons and types of the day. The forecast accuracy of models varies from high to low, since errors are 7.02 % to 59.23 %. The forecasting power of models for weekends is reduced; therefore, additional determinants of electricity price expectations should be considered in the models and advanced input selection algorithms should be applied in future research. Electricity price expectations affect the generator's loss through the production decisions, which are made considering the expected (forecasted) prices. The models allow making the production decision at a sufficient level of accuracy.

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Development of the Latvian energy sector competitiveness system dynamic model

Cited by 6 publications

References 13 publications

Energy System of the Baltic States and its Development

Energy System of the Baltic States and its Development

Development of a System Dynamics Model for Evaluation of the Impact of Integration of Renewable Energy Sources on the Operational Efficiency of Energy Supply Facilities: Theoretical Background

Modelling Electricity Price Expectations in a Day-Ahead Market: A Case of Latvia

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