Development of the Wind Generation Sector and Its Effect on the Grid Operation—The Case of Poland

Abstract

One of the main factors for changes in the structure of the energy mix in Poland is the development of renewable energy sources, in particular wind generation. In 2009–2020, the installed capacity of wind sources in Poland increased more than ninefold. At the same time, new legislation significantly curbed the development of onshore wind farms. Further development of wind energy in Poland will rely largely on offshore wind farms. The current state of development of wind power in Poland allows for analyses of the onshore part of wind energy development in Poland. The paper aims to conduct a detailed analysis of the Polish wind sector from an electric power generation perspective. This article presents a comprehensive discussion of the development of onshore wind generation in Poland. In particular, analyses address the production of electric power from wind. Various time horizons are taken into account, as well as the correlation of wind generation with demand for power in the Polish Power System (PPS). The results of the analysis indicate a high variability of wind generation throughout the month or year. The largest wind generation occurred during the night valley, which makes it difficult to operate the power system. In the winter months, wind generation is much greater than in the summer months. Monthly average values of the capacity factor for onshore wind farms (WFs) vary from 0.14 in August to 0.48 in February. Moreover, the coefficient of determination R2 close to zero shows a lack of correlation between offshore wind power generation and real power demand in the PPS. The studied high variability of wind generation in PPS can be mitigated by the wide use of electricity storage systems. Moreover, the obtained results can be part of a model to describe the energy mix in Poland.

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