Development tendency analysis for the water resource carrying capacity based on system dynamics model and the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in the Changchun city, China

Wang, Ge; Xiao, Changlai; Qi, Zhihong; Meng, Fanzhong; Liang, Xiujuan

doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.107232

Cited by 135 publications

(69 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…With more advanced datum and methods, researchers will get more scienti cally sound results. For more comprehensive studies in the future, SD models can be combined with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method or other relevant models (Wang et al,2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It has the ability to deal with high-order, nonlinear and other complex system problems and is gradually used by scholars for the carrying capacity of water resources (Mashaly and Fernald, 2020) and land resources (Zhu et al,2014). The biggest difference between SD and other methods is its own negative feedback system, that is, a readjustment of constraint conditions (Barati et al,2019;Wang et al,2021). Hence, system dynamics model is introduced to solve this problem.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Scenario Simulation For The Urban Carrying Capacity Based On System Dynamics Model In Shanghai, China

Tao¹,

Shi²,

Cao³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Shanghai, as an international metropolis, is embracing an ever-growing population and ongoing economic development, the pressure on the natural resources and the environment is continually increased. How to ease the tension among economy, resources and the environment? The sustainable green development of Shanghai has been the focus of the public and the government. Urban carrying capacity involves complex interactions among population, economy, resources and environment. Understanding how the balance among various elements is an important scientific question for sustainable green development in Shanghai. For this purpose, the balance between urban development and ecological resources was emphasized, and population carrying capacity, GDP, green ecological index and added value of secondary industry were introduced to measure urban carrying capacity. Here, the dynamic changes of the carrying population, GDP, green ecological index and the added value of the secondary industry in Shanghai during 2018-2035 were simulated using a system dynamics model including four subsystems and 65 variables from a macroscopic perspective. Five development scenarios have been employed during the simulation namely status-quo scenario, economic-centric scenario, high-tech-centric scenario, environment-centric scenario and coordinated equilibrium scenario. The simulation results indicated that the potential of carrying population will decline by 2035, and the economic and ecological indicators will also be at the low level under the status-quo scenario, which is an inferior option. While Under coordinated equilibrium scenario, the ecological environment, population growth and economic development all perform excellently, which is the best option. Therefore, the urban carrying capacity of population-economy-resources in Shanghai may be improved by increasing the investment in scientific research, rising the expenditure on environmental protection and improving the recycling efficiency of waste solid and water. The results provide insights into the urban carrying capacity of Shanghai city.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenario Simulation For The Urban Carrying Capacity Based On System Dynamics Model In Shanghai, China

Tao¹,

Shi²,

Cao³

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The membership function includes the degree to which an element belongs to the fuzzy set ranges between 0 and 1 (Metternicht 2001;Shahid et al 2002;Zhu et al 2014). The fuzzy membership transformation has been done by converting the raster into 0-1 scale (Saha and Pal 2019;Wang et al 2021). The value of 1 indicates full strength of membership and 0 means no membership.…”

Section: Fuzzy Membership and Judgmental Scalementioning

confidence: 99%

Avulsion potential modeling using integrated Fuzzy-AHP in lower catchment of Chel river of North Bengal, India

Ghosh¹,

Sarkar

2021

Model. Earth Syst. Environ.

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The paper aims to determine the potential avulsion zones on the piedmont segment of the Chel river basin. A total of 12 hydro-geomorphic causative variables have been selected considering the river basin's present geomorphological and hydrological characteristics. The analysis focused on spatial modeling considering Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) technique. The paper's main contribution is to identify the active avulsion zones on the piedmont of Darjeeling Himalaya triggered by high monsoon rainfall (5479.3 mm maximum annual average). The model's input comes from high-resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) based on interpolated rasters, proximity rasters, and rainfall raster. The raster overlay inputs have been fuzzified to scale down within 0-1 and produce the final factor weights. The Analytical Hierarchic Process (AHP) checks the priorities judged by each variable's pair wise relative importance as a part of MCE. Finally, the model indicates that suitable sites on a continuous scale of suitability range between 0 and 1. The rainfall raster gets the highest weightage in the AHP priority scoring. The model correctly classified 85.7% of sites suitable to avulsion, and it has also been proven from the recent (2017-2020) field photographs. The Fuzzy-MCE technique has revealed the role of high rainfall in triggering avulsion on the piedmont surface. The final composite layer indicates the mountain outlet (junction of Chel, Manzing and Fagu Khola) as the most potential site for avulsion.

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“…Through manual screening and sorting of literature on water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) in China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) and Web of Science (WOS) (WRCC) in China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) and Web of Science (WOS) databases, it has been found that the quantity of literature on WRCC has been increasing since 2001 (Figure 1). There is no unified view on the concept of resource carrying capacity, which can be divided into three categories: First, the maximum development and utilization capacity of regional resources [4]; Second, the maximum population supported by regional resources [5]; Third, the sustainable development of economic, social, and ecological systems supported by regional resources [6,7]. Similarly, the concept of WRCC is roughly divided into the above three categories, the third of which is favored by the Chinese government and scholars.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research on Comprehensive Evaluation and Coordinated Development of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Qingjiang River Basin, China

Wang

Xin

et al. 2021

Sustainability

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The protection of a water resource’s ecological environment is one of the most important tasks in the watershed in China. The evaluation of water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) is the foundation for the suitability of territorial space development. It is necessary to further analyze the weaknesses of the coordinated development of various dimensions of WRCC and explore the basis of territorial space development and optimization. This paper considers Chinese unique policy tasks, namely, “three water management together”, the types of main function areas, “red lines” control, and national spatial suitability evaluation, to construct the evaluation index system of WRCC. Monomial evaluation, integrated evaluation, and coupling coordination analysis methods are used separately to evaluate the carrying index, comprehensive carrying index, and coupling coordination degree of WRCC in the Qingjiang River Basin. The results show that: (1) As far as monomial evaluation is concerned, water resource supplies are often overloaded on the overall economy, industrial, and agricultural development; (2) The comprehensive indices of WRCC of the counties in the southwest are obviously better than that of the counties in the northeast; (3) The degree of coupling coordination of WRCC in the Qingjiang River basin is not high, and is essentially in the primary or barely coordinated level; (4) the short board of WRCC in the Qingjiang River basin presents obvious spatial characteristics, which from west to east are water environment, water resources and water ecology lagging, respectively. This paper measures WRCC for industry, agriculture, life, and ecology, which is helpful in promoting the suitability evaluation of land space development. Meanwhile, the case study of the Qingjiang River Basin provides reference for other regions to implement the “double evaluation”.

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Development tendency analysis for the water resource carrying capacity based on system dynamics model and the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in the Changchun city, China

Cited by 135 publications

References 40 publications

Scenario Simulation For The Urban Carrying Capacity Based On System Dynamics Model In Shanghai, China

Scenario Simulation For The Urban Carrying Capacity Based On System Dynamics Model In Shanghai, China

Avulsion potential modeling using integrated Fuzzy-AHP in lower catchment of Chel river of North Bengal, India

Research on Comprehensive Evaluation and Coordinated Development of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Qingjiang River Basin, China

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