Deviation Charge Reduction of Aggregated Wind Power Generation using Intelligently Tuned Support Vector Regression

Sreekumar, Sreenu; Sharma, Kailash Chand; Bhakar, Rohit; Chawda, Sandeep; Teotia, Falti; Prakash, Vivek

doi:10.1109/icps48983.2019.9067681

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…This may motivate wind power producers to enhance forecasting accuracy for profit maximization. Positive and negative forecast deviation create almost similar financial impacts, therefore, deviation charges are usually calculated using absolute error and absolute percentage error [5,18,24]. Absolute Error (AE) and Absolute Percentage Error (APE) can be calculated using the following equations [24].…”

Section: Deviation Charge Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, wind power producers are penalized for not providing (or providing extra power than) the committed power. The penalty depends on the deviation of wind power forecasts from actual generation [24]. These penalties are called deviation charges.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Deviation charges can be reduced by improving the accuracy of wind power forecasts [24]. Forecasting accuracy can be enhanced by selecting suitable forecasting models [28].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Wind Power Deviation Charge Reduction using Machine Learning

Kumari,

Sreekumar,

Singh

et al. 2023

DGAEJ

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High penetration of wind power plants in power systems resulted in various challenges such as frequent system imbalances due to highly uncertain and variable wind generation. Additional spinning reserves and specific balancing products such as flexible ramp products are used to handle such frequent imbalances. Incorporation of these ancillary services leads to increased total operational costs. Increased operational costs should be transferred to wind power producers as it is caused by wind power plants. This leads to penalizing the wind power producers for the deviation of power generation from forecasts, called deviation charges. These deviation charges can be reduced by improving the forecasting accuracy. Existing forecasting models show performance in terms of error matrices. Such error matrices do not indicate the financial loss associated with it. This can be overcome by expressing forecasting performance in terms of deviation charge and it will directly encourage wind power producers to improve forecasting accuracy or arrange reserves to accommodate the error. This paper proposes a backpropagation-based artificial neural network model for reducing deviation charges in this context. An analysis is conducted on the data collected from the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) Balancing Area. Seasonal analysis (Spring, Summer, Fall, and Winter) is conducted to show the performance of the proposed model throughout the year. The proposed model performance is compared with linear regression and ARIMA models. The comparison shows that the proposed ANN model gives the least deviation charges in the Spring, Summer, and Winter seasons and deviation charges in the Fall season are higher than the ARIMA model.

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Section: Deviation Charge Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%