DEVIN: A forecasting approach using stochastic methods applied to the Soufrière Hills Volcano

Jaquet, Olivier; Carniel, Roberto; Sparks, Steve; Thompson, Glenn; Namar, Rabah; Cecca, Mauro Di

doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2005.08.013

Cited by 27 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…This EU-funded, 2001-2004 project recognized that volcanic systems were often chaotic, and that multiple time series of geophysical data can be analysed in an integrated manner using geostatistical and other techniques (Jaquet et al 2006a). It showed how new forecasting tools might be developed with optimum data (Jaquet et al 2006b), and was reported in a special issue (issue 1-2) of Volume 153 of the Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research.…”

Section: G Wadge Et Al 20mentioning

confidence: 99%

Chapter 1 An overview of the eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat from 2000 to 2010

Wadge

Voight

Sparks

et al. 2014

Memoirs

139

119

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Abstract:The 1995-present eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano on Montserrat has produced over a cubic kilometre of andesitic magma, creating a series of lava domes that were successively destroyed, with much of their mass deposited in the sea. There have been five phases of lava extrusion to form these lava domes: -March 1998-July 2003 August 2005-April 2007July 2008-January 2009 and October 2009-February 2010. It has been one of the most intensively studied volcanoes in the world during this time, and there are long instrumental and observational datasets. From these have sprung major new insights concerning: the cyclicity of magma transport; low-frequency earthquakes associated with conduit magma flow; the dynamics of lateral blasts and Vulcanian explosions; the role that basalt-andesite magma mingling in the mid-crust has in powering the eruption; identification using seismic tomography of the uppermost magma reservoir at a depth of 5.5 . 7.5 km; and many others. Parallel to the research effort, there has been a consistent programme of quantitative risk assessment since 1997 that has both pioneered new methods and provided a solid evidential source for the civil authority to use in mitigating the risks to the people of Montserrat.At the time of writing (January 2013), the Soufrière Hills Volcano (SHV) is in its 17th year of eruption, placing it with a select group of very long-lived eruptions from silicic volcanoes. Within the Caribbean plate, only two other silicic volcanoes have had longer-lived historical extrusive eruptions: Santiaguito, Guatemala (1922( -present: Harris et al. 2003 and Arenal, Costa Rica (1968 -present: Wadge et al. 2006). As with both of these volcanoes, SHV has not extruded lava continuously for the whole eruption, but has erupted intermittently. In fact, it has been extruding lava for a cumulative total of only 8.5 years out of 17. So in what sense can we consider this a single eruption rather than a series of shorter ones? The longest gaps between extrusive phases have been about 2-3 years (July 2003-August 2005 February 2010-present). However, during the pauses between extrusion at SHV, there have been many indications that the volcanic system remains active. These have included inflation of the island's surface, the release of volatiles in quantities similar to those seen during lava extrusion, swarms of low-frequency seismicity, explosions and the production of ash. This suggests that there are processes within the system responsible for producing alternating extrusive and non-extrusive states. Melnik & Sparks (2005) showed theoretically how non-linear response to relatively minor perturbations of the magmatic system can result in such behaviour.Recognition of the long-term continuity of the eruption process has direct consequences for the tasks of monitoring and estimating the risks posed by the volcano. It means that the Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO) must monitor the volcano continuously, even during periods of relative quiescence and apparent inactivity. The probabil...

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Section: G Wadge Et Al 20mentioning

confidence: 99%

Chapter 1 An overview of the eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat from 2000 to 2010

Wadge

Voight

Sparks

et al. 2014

Memoirs

139

119

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Where possible, a pseudo-magnitude was also provided for each classified event (Jaquet et al, 2006). This was not possible if much of the seismic network was out of operation (during and because of a large event), or if the event was only recorded on the analogue seismometers, which were uncalibrated.…”

Section: Classified Event Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

The fast response of volcano-seismic activity to intense precipitation: Triggering of primary volcanic activity by rainfall at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Matthews

Barclay

Johnstone

2009

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research

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One-minute resolution time series of rainfall and seismic data from the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat are analysed to explore the mechanism of external forcing of volcanic eruptions by rainfall over three years of activity. The real-time seismic amplitude (RSAM) shows a narrow, statistically significant, peak within 30 minutes after the start of intense rainfall events, and a much broader peak with a lag of 6-40 hours. The classified seismic events indicate that the volcanic response to rainfall begins at the surface and gradually penetrates deeper into the dome, as there is an increase in the pseudo-magnitude of: surface rockfall events (including pyroclastic flows) with lags from the first 30 minutes to 40 hours, long-period rockfalls (from shallow degassing) at lags of 4 and 14 hours, and long-period and hybrid events (source depth approximately 1 km) with lags at 14 and 24 hours after the start of rainfall events. There was no rainfall-related change in deeper, volcano-tectonic activity. There was no change in the frequency of any type of classified event, indicating that the rainfall acts to modulate existing, internal processes, rather than generating new events itself. These robust results are due to many (229) different rainfall events, and not just to a few, large magnitude cases. The rainfall-triggered volcanic activity examined here is consistent with a model of fast, shallow interactions with rainfall at the dome surface, after which, a deeper dome collapse follows.

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“…Newhall and Hoblitt 2002;Aspinall et al 2003;Marzocchi et al 2004Marzocchi et al and 2008Connor et al 2006;Marzocchi and Zaccarelli 2006;Jaquet et al 2006Jaquet et al , 2008. One method that has been gaining prominence since it was introduced by Newhall and Hoblitt (2002) is the use of event trees for determining risks during volcanic crises.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards real-time eruption forecasting in the Auckland Volcanic Field: application of BET_EF during the New Zealand National Disaster Exercise ‘Ruaumoko’

et al. 2009

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The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) is a young basaltic field that lies beneath the urban area of Auckland, New Zealand's largest city. Over the past 250,000 years the AVF has produced at least 49 basaltic centers; the last eruption was only 600 years ago. In recognition of the high risk associated with a possible future eruption in Auckland, the New Zealand government ran Exercise Ruaumoko in March 2008, a test of New Zealand's nation-wide preparedness for responding to a major disaster resulting from a volcanic eruption in Auckland City. The exercise scenario was developed in secret, and covered the period of precursory activity up until the eruption. During Exercise Ruaumoko we adapted a recently developed statistical code for eruption forecasting, namely BET_EF (Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting), to independently track the unrest evolution and to forecast the most likely onset time, location and style of the initial phase of the simulated eruption. The code was set up before the start of the exercise by entering reliable information on the past history of the AVF as well as the monitoring signals expected in the event of magmatic unrest and an impending eruption. The average probabilities calculated by BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko corresponded well to the probabilities subjectively (and independently) estimated by the advising scientists (differences of few percentage units), and provided a sound forecast of the timing (before the event, the eruption probability reached 90%) and location of the eruption. This application of BET_EF to a volcanic field that has experienced no historical activity and for which otherwise limited prior information is available shows its versatility and potential usefulness as a tool to aid decision-making for a wide range of volcano types. Our near real-time application of BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko highlighted its potential to clarify and possibly optimize decision-making procedures in a future AVF eruption crisis, and as a rational starting point for discussions in a scientific advisory group. It also stimulated valuable scientific discussion around how a future AVF eruption might progress, and highlighted areas of future volcanological research that would reduce epistemic uncertainties through the development of better input models.

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DEVIN: A forecasting approach using stochastic methods applied to the Soufrière Hills Volcano

Cited by 27 publications

References 23 publications

Chapter 1 An overview of the eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat from 2000 to 2010

Chapter 1 An overview of the eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat from 2000 to 2010

The fast response of volcano-seismic activity to intense precipitation: Triggering of primary volcanic activity by rainfall at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Towards real-time eruption forecasting in the Auckland Volcanic Field: application of BET_EF during the New Zealand National Disaster Exercise ‘Ruaumoko’

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