Automatic mechanism generation is used to determine mechanisms for the CO2
hydrogenation on Ni(111) in a two-stage process, while considering the uncertainty
in energetic parameters systematically. In a coarse stage, all the possible chemistry is
explored with gas-phase products down to the ppb level, while a refined stage discovers
the core methanation submechanism. 5,000 unique mechanisms were generated, which
contain minor perturbations in all parameters. Global uncertainty assessment, global
sensitivity analysis, and degree of rate control analysis are performed to study the effect
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of this parametric uncertainty on the microkinetic model predictions. Comparison of
the model predictions with experimental data on a Ni/SiO2
catalyst find a feasible set
of microkinetic mechanisms that are in quantitative agreement with the measured data,
without relying on explicit parameter optimization. Global uncertainty and sensitivity
analyses provide tools to determine the pathways and key factors that control the
methanation activity within the parameter space. Together, these methods reveal that
the degree of rate control approach can be misleading if parametric uncertainty is not
considered. The procedure of considering uncertainties in the automated mechanism
generation is not unique to CO2 methanation and can be easily extended to other
challenging heterogeneously catalyzed reactions<br>