Diabetes mellitus, fasting blood glucose concentration, and risk of vascular disease: a collaborative meta-analysis of 102 prospective studies

Abstract

SummaryBackgroundUncertainties persist about the magnitude of associations of diabetes mellitus and fasting glucose concentration with risk of coronary heart disease and major stroke subtypes. We aimed to quantify these associations for a wide range of circumstances.MethodsWe undertook a meta-analysis of individual records of diabetes, fasting blood glucose concentration, and other risk factors in people without initial vascular disease from studies in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. We combined within-study regressions that were adjusted for age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, and body-mass index to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for vascular disease.FindingsAnalyses included data for 698 782 people (52 765 non-fatal or fatal vascular outcomes; 8·49 million person-years at risk) from 102 prospective studies. Adjusted HRs with diabetes were: 2·00 (95% CI 1·83–2·19) for coronary heart disease; 2·27 (1·95–2·65) for ischaemic stroke; 1·56 (1·19–2·05) for haemorrhagic stroke; 1·84 (1·59–2·13) for unclassified stroke; and 1·73 (1·51–1·98) for the aggregate of other vascular deaths. HRs did not change appreciably after further adjustment for lipid, inflammatory, or renal markers. HRs for coronary heart disease were higher in women than in men, at 40–59 years than at 70 years and older, and with fatal than with non-fatal disease. At an adult population-wide prevalence of 10%, diabetes was estimated to account for 11% (10–12%) of vascular deaths. Fasting blood glucose concentration was non-linearly related to vascular risk, with no significant associations between 3·90 mmol/L and 5·59 mmol/L. Compared with fasting blood glucose concentrations of 3·90–5·59 mmol/L, HRs for coronary heart disease were: 1·07 (0·97–1·18) for lower than 3·90 mmol/L; 1·11 (1·04–1·18) for 5·60–6·09 mmol/L; and 1·17 (1·08–1·26) for 6·10–6·99 mmol/L. In people without a history of diabetes, information about fasting blood glucose concentration or impaired fasting glucose status did not significantly improve metrics of vascular disease prediction when added to information about several conventional risk factors.InterpretationDiabetes confers about a two-fold excess risk for a wide range of vascular diseases, independently from other conventional risk factors. In people without diabetes, fasting blood glucose concentration is modestly and non-linearly associated with risk of vascular disease.FundingBritish Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, and Pfizer.

Associations of blood glucose and prevalent diabetes with risk of cardiovascular disease in 500 000 adult Chinese: the China Kadoorie Biobank

“…Our findings are more consistent with prospective studies, which have tended to adjust for confounders more comprehensively. In a large, individual participant data meta‐analysis of almost 700 000 people from predominantly Western populations, diabetes (defined variably by self‐report, medication use or fasting blood glucose levels) was associated with a doubling of risk for ischaemic heart disease in a fully adjusted model 14. In the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration individual participant data meta‐analysis involving 161 214 participants, self‐reported diabetes was associated with a 73% excess risk of ischaemic heart disease after adjustment for sex, study and age, which persisted after further adjustment for systolic blood pressure, cholesterol, obesity and smoking 15.…”

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Dietary and physical activity of adult patients with type 2 diabetes in Zhejiang province of eastern China: Data from a cross‐sectional study

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