Diagnosing drought using the downstreamness concept: the effect of reservoir networks on drought evolution

Oel, Pieter van; Martins, Eduardo; Costa, Antônio Celso Spı́nola; Wanders, Niko; Lanen, H.A.J. van

doi:10.1080/02626667.2018.1470632

Cited by 49 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Preprocessing schemes in the context of hydrological forecasting usually focus on the improvement of rainfall predictions used as main drivers for hydrological models (e.g. Kelly and Krzysztofowicz, 2000;Reggiani and Weerts, 2008;Verkade et al, 2013). This is partly already included in the downscaling scheme applied to GCM products but may as well be further extended.…”

Section: Potential Improvementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeast Brazil: what is the added value of a process-based hydrological model?

Pilz

Delgado

Voß

et al. 2019

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The semiarid northeast of Brazil is one of the most densely populated dryland regions in the world and recurrently affected by severe droughts. Thus, reliable seasonal forecasts of streamflow and reservoir storage are of high value for water managers. Such forecasts can be generated by applying either hydrological models representing underlying processes or statistical relationships exploiting correlations among meteorological and hydrological variables. This work evaluates and compares the performances of seasonal reservoir storage forecasts derived by a process-based hydrological model and a statistical approach. Driven by observations, both models achieve similar simulation accuracies. In a hindcast experiment, however, the accuracy of estimating regional reservoir storages was considerably lower using the process-based hydrological model, whereas the resolution and reliability of drought event predictions were similar by both approaches. Further investigations regarding the deficiencies of the process-based model revealed a significant influence of antecedent wetness conditions and a higher sensitivity of model prediction performance to rainfall forecast quality. Within the scope of this study, the statistical model proved to be the more straightforward approach for predictions of reservoir level and drought events at regionally and monthly aggregated scales. However, for forecasts at finer scales of space and time or for the investigation of underlying processes, the costly initialisation and application of a process-based model can be worthwhile. Furthermore, the application of innovative data products, such as remote sensing data, and operational model correction methods, like data assimilation, may allow for an enhanced exploitation of the advanced capabilities of process-based hydrological models.

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Section: Potential Improvementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeast Brazil: what is the added value of a process-based hydrological model?

Pilz

Delgado

Voß

et al. 2019

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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show abstract

“…Van Oel et al (2018) assess the role of large-scale reservoirs in the Jaguaribe basin, Brazil. They demonstrate that the distribution of storage affects the duration and magnitude of droughts, both upstream and downstream.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The fourth challenge is that any intervention in a water system affects temporal and spatial water availability elsewhere. While local storage might increase the exploitability of water at one location, it could also reduce the exploitability of water downstream (van Oel, Martins, Costa, Wanders, & van Lanen, 2018). This applies to any storage technique, to a change in the water table, and to irrigation practices (Masih, Maskey, Uhlenbrook, & Smakhtin, 2011;van Halsema & Vincent, 2012).…”

Section: Local Storage Techniques and The Water System Contextmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges in assessing the regional feasibility of local water storage

Nikkels

Oel

Meinke

et al. 2019

Water International

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The regional effects of local water storage are largely unknown. This study identifies, categorizes and discusses the challenges in assessing the potential of local water storage. These are illustrated using a structured method applied to a Dutch case. We conclude that the focus must shift from storage 'potential' (the quantity of water that can be stored) to storage 'feasibility', which depends on exploitability, purpose and interactions between storage alternatives. Spatial and temporal scale also influence feasibility. Finally, farmers' investment preferences are a factor, though these are shrouded in uncertainty. This overview is a first step towards improving storage assessment tools and processes.

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“…Previous studies suggest that drought frequency and severity are important for water supply (Marsh et al, 2007), but that historical droughts provide a poor basis for future planning because the historical record is restricted to a handful of drought events with specific spatial and temporal characteristics (Watts et al, 2015). Feedbacks between water management operations and drought are also considered important for maintaining reliable water supplies (He et al, 2017), with studies revealing that human activities influence the probability of extreme hydrological drought (van Loon et al, 2016), and manipulate the characteristics of drought along river networks (Tijdeman et al, 2018;van Oel et al, 2018;Wu et al, 2018). However, these studies are also limited to drought periods that exist in the historical record.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Resilience of Inter-basin Transfers to Severe Droughts With Changing Spatial Characteristics

Murgatroyd

Hall

2020

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Faced with the prospect of climate change and growing demands for water, water resources managers are increasingly examining the potential for inter-basin water transfers to alleviate water shortages. However, water transfers are vulnerable to large-scale spatially coherent droughts which may lead to water shortages in neighboring river basins at the same time. Under climate change, increasingly severe droughts are also expected to have greater spatial extent. We have integrated climate, hydrological and water resource modeling to explore the resilience of new transfer schemes between two neighboring water companies in Southern England. An extended historical record of river flows and large ensemble of future flows derived from climate simulations were used to explore the effects of spatial and temporal drought variability. The analysis examines meteorological, hydrological and water resource drought events and how the spatial characteristics of these droughts may change with different transfer arrangements. Results indicate that all drought types examined are expected to increase in frequency and intensity throughout the twenty-first century, but a new transfer has the capability to increase the resilience of water supplies. The analysis also highlights the importance of testing new water infrastructure against drought events that are more extreme and have different spatial patterns to those in historical records, demonstrating the value of scenario-based approaches to adaptive water resource planning.

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Diagnosing drought using the downstreamness concept: the effect of reservoir networks on drought evolution

Cited by 49 publications

References 32 publications

Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeast Brazil: what is the added value of a process-based hydrological model?

Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeast Brazil: what is the added value of a process-based hydrological model?

Challenges in assessing the regional feasibility of local water storage

The Resilience of Inter-basin Transfers to Severe Droughts With Changing Spatial Characteristics

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