Diagnosing Dutch Disease: Does Russia Have the Symptoms?

Oomes, Nienke; Kalcheva, Katerina

doi:10.2139/ssrn.984607

Cited by 15 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…With positive oil price shocks and increasing oil revenues, petrodollars have to be exchanged for local currency, thus, positive oil price shocks increase the real effective exchange rate and appreciate domestic currency, which is one of the syndromes of a "Dutch disease" (Abounoori et al, 2014;Davari and Kamalian, 2018;Adebayo, 2020;Amiri et al, 2021) 4 . The spending effects occur because higher oil prices lead to higher wages or profits in oil-related sectors, consequently increasing the effective purchasing power and aggregate demand in the economy (Oomes and Kalcheva, 2007). While the price of the tradable sector in international markets is determined exogenously, the price of the non-tradable sector is determined in the domestic market.…”

Section: Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Inflation Dynamics and Global Oil Price Shocks in OAPEC Countries: TVP-VAR

Elsherif

2024

IJEEP

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This paper aims to examine the dynamic pass-through effect of oil price shocks on inflation in OAPEC countries using quarterly data ranging from 1990:Q1 to 2022:Q4. The incorporation of the TVP-VAR model along with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method with stochastic volatility estimation offers a robust framework for capturing the time-varying nature of the relationship. Additionally, the analysis of the Impulse Response Function provides valuable insights into the short-term and long-term dynamics following oil price shocks. The results demonstrate a significant positive pass-through effect of oil prices on inflation in the sample member states, with heterogeneous magnitude and persistence. These variations are attributed to diversity in oil dependency, exchange rate regimes, monetary policy frameworks and the degree of openness to global markets. The study suggests the need for effective inflation management strategies and appropriate policy responses to oil price fluctuations. Furthermore, policymakers may consider adjusting exchange rates, interest rates, or trade policies to manage inflationary pressures effectively.

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Section: Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Inflation Dynamics and Global Oil Price Shocks in OAPEC Countries: TVP-VAR

Elsherif

2024

IJEEP

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“…Sala-i-Martin and Subramanian (2013) further saw that the ownership of resources such as oil or minerals embeds rent-seeking, weak governance and corruption within an economy. Numerous research branches are still sprouting to explore the topics such as losing competitiveness in the manufacturing sector through its diminishing importance as well as through the influence of the resources' exports on the exchange rate due to resource-richness (Bresser-Pereira 2008;Lartey et al 2012;Oomes and Kalcheva 2007;Nkusu 2004). This paper focuses on how resource abundance links the quality of public institutions and how their development can alter the approach through which natural wealth is transformed into economic growth.…”

Section: The Vices Summoned By Natural Wealthmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The sense for questioning one-sided claims that are often sensational and emotionally striking through evaluating facts and valuing truth is a skill that can be developed at an early age. Examples of cross-border opinion influencing through the spread of false information could be found in Metodieva (2019); Bajrović et al (2018); Cvjetićanin (2019); Brkan et al (2020) or Stronski (2019). Although developing a comprehensive framework for discerning the impact of misinforming content, junk news etc.…”

Section: Mind Journalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Untitled

2022

MIND Journal

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The long term growth in a country rich with oil or minerals is to be derived from the quality of its public institutions. Government controlled wealth stored in raw materials is known for feeding corruption and putting economies off of their optimal growth path.The main research question is the following: could welfare-improving public governance in a resource abundant country be maintained through making sound decisions concerning the quality of education? A national action plan emphasizing human capital growth through education is proposed. Given its demographics, Kosovo is in the right place to embark on a path of becoming a better-aware society in the horizon of two to three full cycles of compulsory education's time. To prevent the Kosovar society of becoming forsaken due to human capital flight, it is necessary that those who have the potential of forming elites remain in the country. The raw material abundance is predestined to act as a retarder in the country's development if no action is taken. To keep its curse unfulfilled, sound public policies need to be put in place. By achieving this through education, Kosovo could keep its growth -once activated -above the global average.

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“…Considerable attention has been given to the applications of Dutch Disease theory on resourceexporting economies, with high emphasis on the oil-exporting countries (Buiter and Purvis, 1980;Edwards and Aoki, 1983;Hasanov, 2013;Oomes and Kalcheva, 2007). However, this economic illness can be extended to any situation where a country faces a sudden inflow of foreign capital (Inchausti-Sintes, 2015).…”

Section: Dutch Disease Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Dutch Disease phenomenon and demand for international business travels: Panel ARDL/PMG estimation

2021

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This article explores the long-run and short-run effect of natural resource rents on inbound and outbound business travels in resource-abundant economies. By applying panel ARDL/PMG models for 25 countries with annual data for 2005–2017, our results show that increases in dependency on natural resources lead to lower demand for inbound and outbound business travels in the long run. The short-run analyses indicate that while natural resource rents have a significant and positive impact on outbound business travels, they do not affect inbound business travels.

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Diagnosing Dutch Disease: Does Russia Have the Symptoms?

Cited by 15 publications

References 9 publications

Modelling Inflation Dynamics and Global Oil Price Shocks in OAPEC Countries: TVP-VAR

Modelling Inflation Dynamics and Global Oil Price Shocks in OAPEC Countries: TVP-VAR

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Dutch Disease phenomenon and demand for international business travels: Panel ARDL/PMG estimation

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