When a patient consults a GP, part of the management of the individual involves an assessment of the probability of serious illness including malignancy. One way of expressing this probability is in terms of the positive predictive value (PPV): the proportion of people with the symptom, sign, or test result who develop cancer. Research on medical decision models reveals that probabilities and the valuation of outcomes are distorted by individuals, 1 and thus theories of behaviour based on cognitive assessment of risk are not directly applicable to the consultation.2 For instance, in one model of the consultation, the 'evidence' from research that allows the calculation of probabilities of risk and benefit is modified by an individual doctor's knowledge, skills, attitudes, resources, and legal requirements, and an individual patient's ideas, concerns, expectations, beliefs, and values, to produce the final outcome.3 These factors vary widely between individuals.Decision makers who wish to maximise desirable outcome often adopt models based on probabilities of benefits and harms.
AimTo identify symptoms, signs, and non-diagnostic test results in unselected primary care populations that are highly predictive of cancer.
Design of studySystematic review.
SettingPrimary care.
MethodFourteen bibliographic databases were searched, using terms for primary care, cancer, and predictive values. Reference lists of relevant papers were hand-searched. Data were extracted and the quality of each paper was assessed using predefined criteria, and checked by a second reviewer.
ResultsTwenty-five studies were identified. PPVs of 5% or more in specific age and sex groups were reported for: rectal bleeding, change in bowel habit, and iron deficiency anaemia and colorectal cancer; haematuria and urological cancer; malignant rectal examination and prostate cancer; haemoptysis and lung cancer; dysphagia and oesophageal cancer; breast lump and breast cancer; and postmenopausal bleeding and gynaecological cancer.
ConclusionRobust evidence was found for eight symptoms, signs, and non-diagnostic test results as strongly indicative of cancer for specific age and sex groups in unselected primary care populations. These have the potential to improve the early diagnosis of some cancers in primary care by the use of computer warning flags, improved guidelines, audit, and appraisal.
Keywordscancer; positive predictive values; predictive value of tests; primary care.
British Journal of General Practice, September 2010is that much of the evidence that underpins these guidelines is not derived from those patients who consult a GP during a routine consultation. 5 This is important, because predictive values are dependent on the prevalence of the disease in the population from which they are derived and thus applied. The prevalence of cancers within populations and their associated PPVs of symptoms, signs, and nondiagnostic test results increase from community to primary care to hospital populations.The level of the predictive value given in guidelin...