Did Perception of the Economy Affect Attitudes to Immigration at the 2010 British General Election?*

Abstract

Objective. Immigration and the economy were the most salient issues in British politics at the 2010 general election, yet the relationship between them remains unclear. This article questions whether perception of the economic situation influenced hostility to immigration to Britain during the 2010 general election campaign. Method. This article employs a logistic regression model using the 2010 British Election Study to test the effect of economic perception and other previously identified factors on hostility to immigration. Results. The results show that perception of the economy did have an effect on hostility to immigration at the 2010 British general election. However, the effect is negligible. Conclusion. The findings highlight the influence of other factors in predicting hostility to immigration, particularly identity and culture, party identification, and policy-based factors. The prominence of analyzing the effect of economic concerns in determining attitudes to immigration appears misplaced.Economic liberalization, increasing international mobility, and political instability have contributed to unprecedented levels of migration in Britain (Ford, 2011(Ford, :1017). In response, there is now a wide range of survey data and subsequent academic analysis available on British attitudes toward immigration (see John and Margetts, 2009;Ford and Goodwin, 2010; Ford, 2011 as examples). Together, they show that opposition to immigration has been increasing since the mid-1990s, and is especially powerful among those with lower educational qualifications, the working classes, and those who feel that their culture is threatened by immigration (Ivarsflaten, 2005:42). The breadth and depth of opposition has also risen in the last decade (McLaren and Johnson, 2007:709), with 47 percent of respondents to the 2010 British Election Study (BES) regarding themselves as angry about immigration to Britain.The 2010 British general election came at a time of widespread economic uncertainty. The financial crisis that preceded it saw market confidence evaporate, leading to the nationalization of the Northern Rock bank and the U.K. government taking controlling stakes in the Royal Bank of Scotland, Halifax Bank of Scotland, and Lloyds TSB.

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