Did the Bronze Age deforestation of Europe affect its climate? A regional climate model study using pollen-based land cover reconstructions

Abstract

Abstract. This paper studies the impact of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on the climate around 2500 years ago (2.5 ka), a period of rapid transitions across the European landscape. One global climate model was used to force two regional climate models (RCMs). The RCMs used two land cover descriptions. The first was from a dynamical vegetation model representing potential land cover, and the second was from a land cover description reconstructed from pollen data by statistical interpolation. The two different land covers enable us to study the impact of land cover on climate conditions. Since the difference in landscape openness between potential and reconstructed land cover is mostly due to LULCC, this can be taken as a measure of early anthropogenic effects on climate. Since the sensitivity to LULCC is dependent on the choice of climate model, we also use two RCMs. The results show that the simulated 2.5 ka climate was warmer than the simulated pre-industrial (PI, 1850 CE) climate. The largest differences are seen in northern Europe, where the 2.5 ka climate is 2–4 ∘C warmer than the PI period. In summer, the difference between the simulated 2.5 ka and PI climates is smaller (0–3 ∘C), with the smallest differences in southern Europe. Differences in seasonal precipitation are mostly within ±10 %. In parts of northern Europe, the 2.5 ka climate is up to 30 % wetter in winter than that of the PI climate. In summer there is a tendency for the 2.5 ka climate to be drier than the PI climate in the Mediterranean region. The results also suggest that LULCC at 2.5 ka impacted the climate in parts of Europe. Simulations including reconstructed LULCC (i.e. those using pollen-derived land cover descriptions) give up to 1 ∘C higher temperature in parts of northern Europe in winter and up to 1.5 ∘C warmer in southern Europe in summer than simulations with potential land cover. Although the results are model dependent, the relatively strong response implies that anthropogenic land cover changes that had occurred during the Neolithic and Bronze Age could have affected the European climate by 2.5 ka.

Investigating the impact of tropical deforestation on Indian monsoon hydro-climate: a novel study using a regional climate model

“…The albedo also increases by 0.05 units (Fig. 15), which is also reported in similar studies (Mabuchi et al 2005, Mabuchi 2011Strandberg et al 2023) on vegetation change. Conversely, there's a reduction in Sud et al 1988Sud et al , 1996Eltahir 1996;Zheng and Eltahir 1997;Durieux et al 2003;Sen et al 2004;Li et al 2016).…”

“…Extraction of these essential minerals not only leads to deforestation, but also reduces the capacity of the region to act as carbon sinks. Therefore, the magnitude of tropical deforestation has significant environmental and sociological implications (Strandberg et al 2023). Notably, deforestation leads to desertification which further compounds environmental challenges by reducing the recovery capacity of formerly forested land area.…”