Phytoplankton account for roughly half of global primary production; it is vital that we understand the processes that control their abundance. A key process is cell division. We have, however, been unable to estimate division rate in natural populations at the appropriate timescale (hours to days) for extended periods of time (months to years). For phytoplankton, the diel change in cell size distribution is related to division rate, which offers an avenue to obtain estimates from in situ observations. We show that a matrix population model, fit to hourly cell size distributions, accurately estimates division rates of both cultured and natural populations of Synechococcus. Application of the model to Synechococcus at the Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory provides an unprecedented view that reveals a distinct seasonality in division rates. This information allows us to separate the effects of growth and loss quantitatively over an entire seasonal cycle. We find that division and loss processes are tightly coupled throughout the year. The large seasonal changes in cell abundance are the result of periods of time (weeks to months) when there are small systematic differences that favor either net growth or loss. We also find that temperature plays a critical role in limiting division rate during the annual spring bloom. This approach opens a path to quantify the role of Synechococcus in ecological and biogeochemical processes in natural systems.flow cytometry | phytoplankton blooms | FlowCytobot | cyanobacteria M arine phytoplankton contribute ∼50% of global net primary production (1), mediate global biogeochemical cycles, and form the base of marine food webs. It is vital that we understand the factors that govern their abundance, even more so in light of ongoing climate change. The key to this is an understanding of the rate at which phytoplankton cells divide under different environmental conditions. Division rate cannot be measured from changes in cell abundance alone, as changes in abundance result from interactions between cell division and other processes such as predation, advection, sinking, and mixing. Further, we lack approaches that can resolve these processes on scales relevant to the cells' responses to their environment. To overcome this, estimates of abundance and division rate are needed on time scales of hours to days and extending for weeks, months, and ultimately years. Although some progress has been made with automated sampling (2), a practical method for estimating division rates across this wide range of scales has remained elusive. Conventional methods require incubations (3, 4) or sample manipulation and handling (5-7), neither of which can be feasibly conducted at daily resolution for extended duration.For the important class of picophytoplankton (≤2 μm in diameter), estimation of division rates has been attempted from in situ diel changes in cell size. During daylight, individual cells photosynthesize and increase in volume. The increase in cell volume during daylight hours provides a...