Différences de mortalité par Covid-19 : conséquence des imperfections et de la diversité des systèmes de collecte des données

García, Jenny; Torres, Catalina; Barbiéri, Magali; Camarda, Carlo Giovanni; Cambois, Emmanuelle; Caporali, Arianna; Meslé, France; Poniakina, Svitlana; Robine, Jean‐Marie; Guerrouche, Karine

doi:10.3917/popu.2101.0037

Cited by 23 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…For France, over-counting seems unlikely as the underlying data on COVID-19 death counts used here originates from Santé Publique France,5 which uses a very strict definition of "death due to COVID-19". 44 While COVID-19 was the largest contributor to 2021 life expectancy deficit in nearly all countries, causes other than COVID-19 explained the majority of the 2021 LE deficit in the Netherlands and Greece. Again, this is in line with evidence from Karlinsky and Kobak 45 who found indirect evidence of substantial under-reporting of deaths due to COVID-19 in the Netherlands during the fall/winter wave in 2021 when comparing excess deaths with COVID-19 deaths.6 For Greece, an under-count was less evident but the population suffered unusual mortality spikes during the summer which were potentially heat-related and thus may have contributed to the elevated non-COVID contribution to the LE deficit.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Whether this shift towards the young reflects differences in vaccine protection, behavioral responses, or deaths from indirect causes remains to be understood. The inconsistent registration of deaths due to COVID-19 across countries 36 complicates any cause-of-death attribution analysis, including ours. We found lower than expected mortality due to non-COVID-19 causes in 2021 in Belgium, England & Wales, France, and Slovenia (Figure 4).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For France, over-counting COVID-19 deaths seems unlikely as the underlying data on COVID-19 death counts used here originates from Santé Publique France, which uses a very strict definition of “death due to COVID-19”. 36…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Bounce backs amid continued losses: Life expectancy changes since COVID-19

Schöley

Aburto

Kashnitsky

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Background The COVID-19 pandemic triggered an unprecedented rise in mortality that translated into life expectancy losses around the world, with only a few exceptions. In 2021, life expectancy trends globally diverged more due to the unequal impact of the pandemic across countries, variation in the age-patterns of mortality, and differences in vaccination. We estimate life expectancy changes in 29 countries since 2020, attribute them to mortality changes by age group, and compare them to historic life expectancy shocks. Data Total death counts by age and sex came from the Short-term Mortality Fluctuations and Human Mortality databases. Registered COVID-19 deaths and vaccination counts by age and sex were sourced from the COVerAGE-DB database. Midyear population counts were extracted from the UN World Population Prospects database. Methods Life expectancy for females, males, and the total population were calculated for 29 countries for 2020 and 2021. Additionally, we calculated life expectancy deficits for 2020 and 2021 based on pre-pandemic Lee-Carter forecasts of short-term life expectancy trends. Using demographic decomposition techniques, age- and COVID-19 specific contributions to changes and deficits in life expectancy were calculated. Deficits in life expectancy in 2021 across countries were compared to country vaccination rates. 95% uncertainty intervals were derived from Poisson replications of death counts. Findings Out of 29 countries, 14 countries lost life expectancy in both 2020 and 2021, 12 recovered losses in 2020 but not all of them back to 2019 levels, 2 exceeded pre-pandemic life expectancy, and 1 dropped below 2019 levels only in 2021. All 29 countries had lower life expectancy in 2021 than expected had pre-pandemic trends continued. The female life expectancy advantage increased for most countries, consistent with hypotheses that females are more resilient to mortality crises than men. Life expectancy losses were moderately correlated with measures of vaccination uptake. One notable change from 2020 was that mortality at younger ages contributed more to life expectancy losses in 2021. Registered COVID-19 deaths accounted for most losses of life expectancy. Interpretation In 2021 we saw divergence in the impact of the pandemic on population health. While some countries saw bounce-backs from stark life expectancy losses, others experienced sustained and substantial life expectancy deficits. While COVID-19 has been the most severe global mortality shock since the Second World War, this observed heterogeneity in 2021 indicates that pathways to long-term recovery of life expectancy trends remain unclear.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Bounce backs amid continued losses: Life expectancy changes since COVID-19

Schöley

Aburto

Kashnitsky

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Thus, the numbers of confirmed infections are not comparable. A similar problem relates to the identification of those hospitalised with COVID-19, and those who succumb to the virus (Garcia et al, 2021). Given the challenges of measuring the impact of the disease, a count of excess deaths, irrespective of the cause, becomes appealing as a comparative measure of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The paper is presented in three parts. We begin by describing the challenges associated with the civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) system in South Africa, many of which are common to developing countries (Garcia et al, 2021). These challenges include matters relating to the completeness of registration and timeliness of cause-of-death data in these settings.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid mortality surveillance using a national population register to monitor excess deaths during SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in South Africa

Dorrington

Moultrie

Laubscher

et al. 2021

Genus

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This paper describes how an up-to-date national population register recording deaths by age and sex, whether deaths were due to natural or unnatural causes, and the offices at which the deaths were recorded can be used to monitor excess death during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, both nationally, and sub-nationally, in a country with a vital registration system that is neither up to date nor complete. Apart from suggesting an approach for estimating completeness of reporting at a sub-national level, the application produces estimates of the number of deaths in excess of those expected in the absence of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic that are highly correlated with the confirmed number of COVID-19 deaths over time, but at a level 2.5 to 3 times higher than the official numbers of COVID-19 deaths. Apportioning the observed excess deaths more precisely to COVID, COVID-related and collateral deaths, and non-COVID deaths averted by interventions with reduced mobility and gatherings, etc., requires access to real-time cause-of-death information. It is suggested that the transition from ICD-10 to ICD-11 should be used as an opportunity to change from a paper-based system to electronic capture of the medical cause-of-death information.

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Comparing COVID-19 fatality across countries: a synthetic demographic indicator

Bignami

Ghio

2022

J Pop Research

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Background The case fatality rate (CFR) is one of the most important measures for monitoring disease progression and evaluating appropriate policy health measures over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. To remove biases arising from the age structure of COVID-19 cases in international comparisons of the CFR, existing studies have relied mainly on direct standardisation. Objective We propose and validate a synthetic indicator of COVID-19 fatality (SCFR) that improves its comparability across countries by adjusting for the age and sex structure of COVID-19 cases without relying on the arbitrary choice of a standard population. Results Contrary to what comparisons of the crude CFR suggest, differences in COVID-19 fatality across countries according to the proposed SCFR are not very stark. Importantly, once we adjust for the age structure of COVID-19 cases, the higher case fatality among men emerges as the main driver of international differences in COVID-19 CFR. Conclusions The SCFR is a simple indicator that is useful for monitoring the fatality of SARS-CoV-2 mutations and the efficacy of health policy measures for COVID-19, including vaccination. Contributions (1) A simple synthetic indicator of COVID-19 fatality that improves its comparability across countries by adjusting for the age and sex structure of COVID-19 cases; (2) Evidence that sex differences in COVID-19 fatality drive international differences in the overall CFR.

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Différences de mortalité par Covid-19 : conséquence des imperfections et de la diversité des systèmes de collecte des données

Cited by 23 publications

References 8 publications

Bounce backs amid continued losses: Life expectancy changes since COVID-19

Bounce backs amid continued losses: Life expectancy changes since COVID-19

Rapid mortality surveillance using a national population register to monitor excess deaths during SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in South Africa

Comparing COVID-19 fatality across countries: a synthetic demographic indicator

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