This study identified profiles of 13 risk factors across child, family, school, and neighborhood domains in a diverse sample of children in kindergarten from 4 US locations (n = 750; 45% minority). It then examined the relation of those early risk profiles to externalizing problems, school failure, and low academic achievement in Grade 5. A person-centered approach, latent class analysis, revealed four unique risk profiles, which varied considerably across urban African American, urban white, and rural white children. Profiles characterized by several risks that cut across multiple domains conferred the highest risk for negative outcomes. Compared to a variablecentered approach, such as a cumulative risk index, these findings provide a more nuanced understanding of the early precursors to negative outcomes. For example, results suggested that urban children in single-parent homes that have few other risk factors (i.e., show at least average parenting warmth and consistency and report relatively low stress and high social support) are at quite low risk for externalizing problems, but at relatively high risk for poor grades and low academic achievement. These findings provide important information for refining and targeting preventive interventions to groups of children who share particular constellations of risk factors.
KeywordsMultiple risks; risk profiles; person-centered; latent class analysis; child behavior problems Children live within multiple contexts, including the family, the school, and the neighborhood, and characteristics of those contexts contribute to the development of competence or adjustment problems (Bronfrenbrenner, 1979;Cicchetti, 1993). Although it can be useful to examine the role of individual risk factors, they seldom operate in isolation (Cicchetti, 1993). In fact, they often are highly related both within and across ecological levels (e.g., child, family, school, and neighborhood). Findings from numerous longitudinal studies support the value of a holistic/ecological approach to examining the multiple risk factors associated with children's future adjustment problems (Gorman-Smith, Tolan, & Henry, 2000;Greenberg, et al., 1999;Greenberg, Speltz, DeKlyen, & Jones, 2001;Keller, Spieker, & Gilchrist, 2005;Rutter, 1979;Sameroff & Seifer, 1990).This study assumed such a multivariate approach, in which children's characteristics and outcomes are influenced by factors including the social context of their family, the nature of
NIH-PA Author ManuscriptNIH-PA Author Manuscript NIH-PA Author Manuscript interactions they have with their parents, the quality of their neighborhoods, their experiences with their teachers and classmates, and the climate of their schools. Although we know that each of those factors is contributory, it is less clear how all of those factors interact to lead toward or deflect children from specific outcomes. The beginning of elementary school and the beginning of middle school represent two critical developmental time periods during which the transition in conte...