Different approaches to quantify years of life lost from COVID-19

Ferenci, Tamás

doi:10.1007/s10654-021-00774-0

Cited by 33 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…8 Adjustment for comorbidities has been shown to decrease the number of years-of-life-lost in some studies. [9][10][11] However, the change is typically modest (e.g., in the range of 1 years) and much smaller than what we observed in the LTC resident population that we evaluated. It is possible that in most studies, information on comorbidities is not available in sufficient granularity and accuracy regarding severity.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 66%

Time-Varying Risk of Death After SARS-CoV-2-Infection in Long-Term Care Facility Residents: A Matched Cohort Study

Ballin

Ioannidis

Bergman

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Importance: The case fatality rate of SARS-CoV-2 has been high among residents of long-term care (LTC) facilities. It is important to know if the excess mortality persists beyond the acute infection. Objective: To evaluate whether SARS-CoV-2 is associated with higher mortality after the first month from documented infection. Design: We extended the follow-up period of a previous, retrospective cohort study based on the Swedish Senior Alert register. LTC residents infected with SARS-CoV-2 were matched to uninfected controls using time-dependent propensity scores on age, sex, body mass index, health status, comorbidities, and prescription medication use. In a sensitivity analysis, residents were also matched on geographical region and time of Senior Alert registration. Setting: LTC facilities in Sweden. Participants: 3731 LTC residents with SARS-CoV-2 and 3731 controls (n=3604 in each group in the sensitivity analysis). Exposure: SARS-CoV-2 infection, documented in the SmiNet register (until September 15, 2020). Main Outcome: All-cause mortality over 8 months (until October 24, 2020). Results: The median age was 87 years, and 65% were women. Excess mortality was highest 5 days after documented infection (hazard ratio 19.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 14.6-24.8), after which excess mortality decreased rapidly. After the second month, the mortality rate became lower in infected residents than in controls. Median survival of uninfected controls was 577 days (1.6 years), which is much lower than national life expectancy in Sweden at age 87 (5.05 years in men, 6.07 years in women). During days 61-210 of follow-up, the hazard ratio for death was 0.41 (95% CI, 0.34-0.50) in the main analysis and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.62-0.93) in the sensitivity analysis. Conclusions and Relevance: No excess mortality was observed in LTC residents who survived the acute SARS-CoV-2 infection (the first month). The life expectancy of uninfected residents was much lower than that of the general population of the same age and sex. This difference should be taken into account in calculations of years of life lost among LTC residents.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 66%

Time-Varying Risk of Death After SARS-CoV-2-Infection in Long-Term Care Facility Residents: A Matched Cohort Study

Ballin

Ioannidis

Bergman

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…YLL has been used to assess COVID-19 effects in some papers, either in the study of a single country [16,17] or several countries together (e.g., [18][19][20][21]), though before vaccination was available. Only one research work took place in the first months of the vaccination campaign in Hungary [22].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Is Mandatory Vaccination in Population over 60 Adequate to Control the COVID-19 Pandemic in E.U.?

et al. 2022

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Vaccine hesitancy, which potentially leads to the refusal or delayed acceptance of COVID-19 vaccines, is considered a key driver of the increasing death toll from the pandemic in the EU. The European Commission and several member states’ governments are either planning or have already directly or indirectly announced mandatory vaccination for individuals aged over 60, the group which has repeatedly proved to be the most vulnerable. In this paper, an assessment of this strategy’s benefits is attempted by deriving a metric for the potential gains of vaccination mandates that can be used to compare EU member states. This is completed by examining the reduction in Standard Expected Years of Life Lost (SEYLL) per person for the EU population over 60 as a function of the member states’ vaccination percentage in these ages. The publicly available data and results of the second iteration of the SHARE COVID-19 survey on the acceptance of COVID-19 vaccines, conducted during the summer of 2021, are used as inputs.

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“…So, the calculated results are 1.2, 1.0 and 1.3 years, respectively. These numbers are a bit lower than the estimation of the adjusted YLL method for a specific COVID-19 death after adjusting comorbidities, such as 1.3 years in Hungary, 11 but are much less than the estimation of the mere YLL in 81 countries as reported 16 years per the COVID-19 death. 8 …”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 68%

“… 8 Due to YLL only being calculated from different life expectancies at each death, other studies modeled the mortality impacts of comorbidity to adjust the YLL of those who died from COVID-1, 9 , 10 especially took the advantage of the available individual-level data on comorbidities to calculate the adjusted YLL due to COVID-19, which is 1.3 years per death after adjusting for 11 comorbidities. 11 …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early-death weeks associated with COVID-19: a comparison among France, the UK and the USA

Cuong

2021

Journal of Public Health

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Background Years of life lost (YLL) is recently used as a more insightful indicator to assess the mortality impact of COVID-19. However, this indicator still has methodological limits. This study aims to propose an alternative approach and new index, early-death weeks. Methods The natural mortality and social mortality laws were employed to support two essential assumptions: the sequential and translational early-mortality patterns of COVID-19. This approach was then used with the data related to COVID-19 to calculate early-death weeks associated with COVID-19 in France, the UK and the USA. Results As of week 20 of 2021, the rate of the total number of early-death weeks per the population of the USA is nearly two times compared to that of France and the UK, with 0.004% to 0.0021 and 0.0023%, respectively. The average numbers of early-death weeks after converting to units of years are 1.2, 1.0 and 1.3 years in France, the UK and the USA, respectively. Conclusions The new approach is significantly different from death counts, excess deaths and YLL. The early-death week index provides more insights into COVID-19 and can be applied promptly at any time as well as anywhere once excess deaths have occurred.

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Different approaches to quantify years of life lost from COVID-19

Cited by 33 publications

References 39 publications

Time-Varying Risk of Death After SARS-CoV-2-Infection in Long-Term Care Facility Residents: A Matched Cohort Study

Time-Varying Risk of Death After SARS-CoV-2-Infection in Long-Term Care Facility Residents: A Matched Cohort Study

Is Mandatory Vaccination in Population over 60 Adequate to Control the COVID-19 Pandemic in E.U.?

Early-death weeks associated with COVID-19: a comparison among France, the UK and the USA

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