Predicting developmental outcomes from regulatory DNA sequence and transcription 17 factor patterns remains an open challenge in physical biology. Using stripe 2 of the even-skipped 18 gene in Drosophila embryos as a case study, we dissect the regulatory forces underpinning a key 19 step along the developmental decision-making cascade: the generation of cytoplasmic mRNA 20 patterns via the control of transcription in individual cells. Using live imaging and computational 21 approaches, we found that the transcriptional burst frequency is modulated across the stripe to 22 control the mRNA production rate. However, we discovered that bursting alone cannot 23 quantitatively recapitulate the formation of the stripe, and that control of the window of time over 24 which each nucleus transcribes even-skipped plays a critical role in stripe formation. Theoretical 25 modeling revealed that these regulatory strategies-bursting and the time window-obey different 26 kinds of regulatory logic, suggesting that the stripe is shaped by the interplay of two distinct 27 underlying molecular processes. 28 29 35the regulatory logic of the enhancer elements that dictate the behavior of these networks, the 36 precise prediction of how gene expression patterns and developmental outcomes are driven by 37 transcription factor concentrations remains a central challenge in the field (Vincent et al., 2016). 38 Predicting developmental outcomes demands a quantitative understanding of the flow of 39 information along the central dogma: how input transcription factors dictate the output rate of 40 1 of 69 Manuscript submitted to bioRxiv mRNA production, how this rate of mRNA production dictates cytoplasmic patterns of mRNA, 41 and how these mRNA patterns lead to protein patterns that feed back into the gene regulatory 42 network. While the connection between transcription factor concentration and output mRNA 43 production rate has been the subject of active research over the last three decades (Lawrence 44 et al.connection between this output rate and 47 In order to uncover the quantitative contribution of these three regulatory strategies to pattern 62 formation, and to determine whether other regulatory strategies are at play, it is necessary to 63 measure the rate of RNA polymerase loading in individual nuclei, in real time, in a living embryo. 64 2 of 69 Manuscript submitted to bioRxiv However, to date, most studies have relied on fixed-tissue techniques such as mRNA FISH and 65 immunofluorescence in order to obtain snapshots of the cytoplasmic distributions of mRNA and 66 protein as development progresses (Jaeger et al., 2004; Fakhouri et al., 2010; Parker et al., 2011; 67 Estrada et al., 2016; Crocker et al., 2016; Verd et al., 2017; Park et al., 2018). Such techniques 68 are virtually silent regarding the regulation of single-cell gene expression over time, and are thus 69 ill-suited to the study of how spatiotemporal variations in transcriptional dynamics give rise to 70 patterns of cytoplasmic mRNA. 71...