Differentiating between distribution and suitable habitat in ecological niche models: A red spruce (Picea rubens) case study

Brown, Christian H.; Griscom, Heather P.

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110102

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…A total of 338 presence points and 169 true absence points were taken. True absence points were purposefully collected at least 30 m from the nearest red spruce presence points or in areas suitable for red spruce growth to increase model discrimination (Brown & Griscom 2022). True absences were only included in the SDM to increase discrimination within models so that current distribution would be more closely predicted rather than suitable habitat (Brown & Griscom 2022; Peters & Griscom 2022).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…True absence points were purposefully collected at least 30 m from the nearest red spruce presence points or in areas suitable for red spruce growth to increase model discrimination (Brown & Griscom 2022). True absences were only included in the SDM to increase discrimination within models so that current distribution would be more closely predicted rather than suitable habitat (Brown & Griscom 2022; Peters & Griscom 2022). Pseudo‐absence points, or randomly generated background points, were located throughout the state of Virginia in each model to avoid creating bias by only collecting absences in proximity to red spruce (Wisz & Guisan 2009).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing red spruce (Picea rubensSarg.) restoration potential under current and future predicted climate change in Virginia

Brown,

Griscom

2023

Restoration Ecology

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Global climate change threatens many species across the planet. High‐elevation species, such as red spruce (Picea rubens), face significant and immediate threats from climate change. Red spruce has faced anthropogenic disturbances for over a century and is only recently beginning to recover across its range. Ecological niche modeling has become a common method of identifying the suitable habitat of a species, providing vital information to land managers carrying out restoration efforts. In this study, ecological niche models were used in a novel way, predicting distribution and habitat suitability separately and simultaneously to determine the spatial extent to which red spruce forests can be restored. In addition to models, surveys were conducted to elucidate the current regeneration trends of red spruce. Furthermore, climate projections were used to determine how restoration potential may change over the course of the twenty‐first century. Comparisons between distribution and habitat suitability models indicate that there is additional habitat available for red spruce expansion. Regeneration surveys show that there is positive regeneration both within and beyond red spruce canopies, validating model comparisons. Climate change projections indicate total elimination of suitable habitat in Virginia by 2100. However, these projections likely predict increased competition for red spruce from low elevation competitors as opposed to physiological limitations imposed by climate change. It is therefore prudent to protect established populations and encourage further regeneration within and beyond current red spruce stands in anticipation of future ecological shifts.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing red spruce (Picea rubensSarg.) restoration potential under current and future predicted climate change in Virginia

Brown,

Griscom

2023

Restoration Ecology

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“…), and using statistical algorithms to predict habitat suitability for a given species across a region of interest (Pearson, 2007;Elith and Franklin, 2013). ENM is often considered synonymous with Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) and Habitat Suitability Modeling (HSM), though (Brown and Griscom, 2022) highlight some important differences between the terms in certain contexts. ENM is commonly applied to studies researching the distributions of plant species (Carrell et al, 2022), and consequences of future climatic change on their geographic distribution (Nakao et al, 2013;Moor et al, 2015).…”

Section: Ecological Niche Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multiscale ecological niche modeling exhibits varying climate change impacts on habitat suitability of Madrean Pine-Oak trees

et al. 2023

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Anthropogenic climate change and increasing greenhouse gas emissions are expected to globally impact the biological function, community structure, and spatial distribution of biodiversity. Many existing studies explore the effect of climate change on biodiversity, generally at a single spatial scale. This study explores the potential effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of seven tree species at two distinct spatial scales: the Coronado National Forest (CNF), a local management area, and the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO), an ecoregional extent. Habitat suitability was determined by extrapolating Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) based on citizen-science tree occurrence records into future climatic conditions using projected 30-year normals for two anthropogenic emissions scenarios through the end of the century. These ENMs, examined at a spatial resolution of 1 km2, are constructed using a mean average ensemble of three commonly used machine learning algorithms. The results show that habitat suitability is expected to decrease for all seven tree species at varying degrees. Results also show that climate-forcing scenario choice appears to be far less important for understanding changes in species habitat suitability than the spatial scale of modeling extent. Additionally, we observed non-linear changes in tree species habitat suitability within the SMO and CNF dependent on forest community type, latitude, and elevational gradient. The paper concludes with a discussion of the necessary steps to verify the estimated alters of these tree species under climate change. Most importantly, provides a framework for characterizing habitat suitability across spatial scales.

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“…Range-wide distribution modeling can be hindered by the lack of robust presence and absence data across broad areas occupied by the focal species (Brown and Griscom, 2022). Acquiring presence and/or absence data may be challenging because of species crypsis, difficulties accessing remote habitats, or the sheer size of many widespread species' distributions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Adults can be reliably identified using commercial satellite data (i.e., Google Maps, satellite view) or Light Detection and Radar Data (LiDAR; Esque et al, 2020a). Image-based empirical maps of the trees' distribution can be used with SDMs to enhance representative rangewide habitat suitability maps and explore occupied and potential habitat with great accuracy (Brown and Griscom, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unprecedented distribution data for Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana) reveal contemporary climate associations of a Mojave Desert icon

Esque,

Shryock,

Berry

et al. 2023

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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IntroductionForecasting range shifts in response to climate change requires accurate species distribution models (SDMs), particularly at the margins of species' ranges. However, most studies producing SDMs rely on sparse species occurrence datasets from herbarium records and public databases, along with random pseudoabsences. While environmental covariates used to fit SDMS are increasingly precise due to satellite data, the availability of species occurrence records is still a large source of bias in model predictions. We developed distribution models for hybridizing sister species of western and eastern Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana, respectively), iconic Mojave Desert species that are threatened by climate change and habitat loss.MethodsWe conducted an intensive visual grid search of online satellite imagery for 672,043 0.25 km2 grid cells to identify the two species' presences and absences on the landscape with exceptional resolution, and field validated 29,050 cells in 15,001 km of driving. We used the resulting presence/absence data to train SDMs for each Joshua tree species, revealing the contemporary environmental gradients (during the past 40 years) with greatest influence on the current distribution of adult trees.ResultsWhile the environments occupied by Y. brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana were similar in total aridity, they differed with respect to seasonal precipitation and temperature ranges, suggesting the two species may have differing responses to climate change. Moreover, the species showed differing potential to occupy each other's geographic ranges: modeled potential habitat for Y. jaegeriana extends throughout the range of Y. brevifolia, while potential habitat for Y. brevifolia is not well represented within the range of Y. jaegeriana.DiscussionBy reproducing the current range of the Joshua trees with high fidelity, our dataset can serve as a baseline for future research, monitoring, and management of this species, including an increased understanding of dynamics at the trailing and leading margins of the species' ranges and potential for climate refugia.

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Differentiating between distribution and suitable habitat in ecological niche models: A red spruce (Picea rubens) case study

Cited by 6 publications

References 19 publications

Assessing red spruce (Picea rubensSarg.) restoration potential under current and future predicted climate change in Virginia

Assessing red spruce (Picea rubensSarg.) restoration potential under current and future predicted climate change in Virginia

Multiscale ecological niche modeling exhibits varying climate change impacts on habitat suitability of Madrean Pine-Oak trees

Unprecedented distribution data for Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana) reveal contemporary climate associations of a Mojave Desert icon

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