Direct or indirect electrification? A review of heat generation and road transport decarbonisation scenarios for Germany 2050

Ruhnau, Oliver; Bannik, Sergej; Otten, Sydney; Praktiknjo, Aaron; Robinius, Martin

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2018.10.114

Cited by 108 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Put differently, the 15% heat pump share in electricity demand ceteris paribus translates into a 50% heat pump share in heat demand. While a 15% heat pump share in electricity is in line with 2050 energy scenarios, the heat share may be even higher due to building retrofit (Ruhnau et al, 2019a). Note that the heat pump share is defined based on inflexible heat pump operation, and the total electricity consumption for flexible operation can differ due to endogenously determined thermal storage losses and back-up heater utilization.…”

Section: Market Sharesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The expansion of renewable energy is not the only aspect in transforming energy systems. Another key ingredient is the electrification of space heating through heat pumps (Barton et al, 2013;Connolly, 2017;Jacobson et al, 2017;Ruhnau et al, 2019a). This trend is expected to be amplified by decarbonization targets: electric heating using renewable electricity is a low-carbon substitute for fossilfueled alternatives.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This trend is expected to be amplified by decarbonization targets: electric heating using renewable electricity is a low-carbon substitute for fossilfueled alternatives. For example, Ruhnau et al (2019a) review decarbonization scenarios for Germany 2050 and find that 40-80% of the heat demand in the building sector may be served by electric heat pumps, thereby increasing the overall electricity demand by 10-30%. In addition to decentralized heat pumps in the building sector, larger power-to-heat systems may support the decarbonization of centralized district heating systems and industrial applications (Bloess et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Heating with wind: Economics of heat pumps and variable renewables

2020

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With the growth of wind and solar energy in electricity supply, the electrification of space heating is becoming a promising decarbonization option. In turn, such electrification may help the power system integration of variable renewables, for two reasons: thermal storage could provide low-cost flexibility and heat demand is seasonally correlated with wind power. However, temporal fluctuations in heat demand may also imply new challenges for the power system. This study assesses the economic characteristics of electric heat pumps and wind energy and studies their interaction on wholesale electricity markets. Using a numerical electricity market model, we estimate the economic value of wind energy and the economic cost of powering heat pumps. We find that, just as expanding wind energy depresses its €/MWhel value, adopting heat pumps increases their €/MWhel cost. This rise can be mitigated by synergistic effects with wind power, "system-friendly" heat pump technology, and thermal storage. Furthermore, heat pumps raise the wind market value, but this effect vanishes if accounting for the additional wind energy needed to serve the heat pump load. Thermal storage facilitates the system integration of wind power but competes with other flexibility options. For an efficient adoption of heat pumps and thermal storage, we argued that retail tariffs for heat pump customers should reflect their underlying economic cost.

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Section: Market Sharesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Heating with wind: Economics of heat pumps and variable renewables

2020

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“…In order to achieve the primary goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement [1] to limit the average global warming to less than 1.5°C, Switzerland and many other countries follow a strategy to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and global warming by a transition from a fossil-based to a renewables-based energy system [2]. In particular, the substitution of fossil fuels by alternatives based on electricity from renewables is an oft-cited option [3][4][5][6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of an Increased Substitution of Fossil Energy Carriers with Electricity-Based Technologies on the Swiss Electricity System

2019

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Electrifying the energy system with heat pumps and battery electric vehicles (BEV) is a strategy of Switzerland and many other countries to reduce CO2 emissions. A large electrification, however, poses several new challenges for the electricity system, particularly in combination with a simultaneous substitution of nuclear power plants (NPP) by volatile renewables such as photovoltaics (PV). In this study, these challenges in terms of additional electricity demands, deficits and surpluses as well as effective CO2 mitigation are assessed in a dynamic and data-driven approach. To this end, electricity demand and production profiles are synthesized based on measured data and specifications and assumptions of the key technologies at a high temporal resolution. The additional electricity demand of heat pumps is estimated from hourly measured heat demand profiles of a Swiss district heating provider, while for BEV different recharging patterns are combined. For electricity production, NPP are deducted from the current electricity production profile, while PV is added at an hourly resolution. In order to estimate CO2 emissions, life-cycle analysis (LCA) CO2 intensities of the different technologies are used. It is shown that with a BEV and heat pump penetration of 20% and 75%, respectively, there is an almost 25% (13.7 TWh/year) increase of the electricity demand and—just as challenging—an additional maximum power requirement of 5.9 GWh/h (hourly-averaged power). Without additional storage options, large amounts of electricity must be imported in winter and at night, while in summer at noon there is a large surplus from PV. Due to their high CO2 intensities—at least for the next decades—electricity imports and PV may—depending on the reference scenario (with or without NPP) and assumptions on other key parameters—even offset the overall CO2 savings of a highly electrified Swiss energy system.

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“…Transport electrification has been viewed as a major solution to transportation decarbonization [7–8]. Numerous governments have announced their desire to eventually ban cars powered by internal combustion engines.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transport oil product consumption and GHG emission reduction potential in China: An electric vehicle-based scenario analysis

Zheng¹,

Li²,

Xu³

2019

PLoS ONE

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China’s transport sector is facing enormous challenges from soaring energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Transport electrification has been viewed as a major solution to transportation decarbonization, and electric vehicles (EVs) have attracted considerable attention from policymakers. This paper analyzes the effects of the introduction of EVs in China. A system dynamics model is developed and applied to assess the energy-saving and emission-reducing impacts of the projected penetration of EVs until the year 2030. Five types of scenarios of various EV penetration rates, electricity generation mixes, and the speed of technological improvement are discussed. Results confirm that reductions in transport GHG emissions and gasoline and diesel consumption by 3.0%–16.2%, 4.4%–16.1%, and 15.8%–34.3%, respectively, will be achieved by 2030 under China’s projected EV penetration scenarios. Results also confirm that if EV penetration is accompanied by decarbonized electricity generation, that is, the use of 55% coal by 2030, then total transport GHG emissions will be further reduced by 0.8%–4.4%. Moreover, further reductions of GHG emissions of up to 5.6% could be achieved through technological improvement. The promotion of EVs could substantially affect the reduction of transport GHG emissions in China, despite the uncertainty of the influence intensity, which is dependent on the penetration rate of EVs, the decarbonization of the power sector, and the technological improvement efficiency of EVs and internal combustion engine vehicles.

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Direct or indirect electrification? A review of heat generation and road transport decarbonisation scenarios for Germany 2050

Abstract: In the scenarios reviewed, GHG emission reduction targets drive electrification. • If targets are met by 2050, 40-100% of heat and car transport will be electrified. • The electricity consumption of heat and transport will increase to 400-800 TWh.

Cited by 108 publications

References 20 publications

Heating with wind: Economics of heat pumps and variable renewables

Heating with wind: Economics of heat pumps and variable renewables

Impacts of an Increased Substitution of Fossil Energy Carriers with Electricity-Based Technologies on the Swiss Electricity System

Transport oil product consumption and GHG emission reduction potential in China: An electric vehicle-based scenario analysis

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