Objective
To examine the predictive validity of the Modified Checklist for Autism in Toddlers (M-CHAT) administered at 24 months of age for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) diagnosed at 10 years in a U.S. cohort of 827 Extremely Low Gestational Age Newborns (ELGAN) followed from birth.
Study design
We examined the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the M-CHAT in predicting an ASD diagnosis at age 10 based on gold-standard diagnostic instruments. We then assessed how these predictive parameters were affected by sensorimotor and cognitive impairments, and socioeconomic status (SES), as well as emotional/behavioral dysregulation at age 2.
Results
Using standard criteria, the M-CHAT had a sensitivity of 52%, a specificity of 84%, a positive predictive value (PPV) of 20%, and the negative predictive value (NPV) of 96%. False positive and false negative rates were high among children who had hearing and vision impairments. High false positive rates were also associated with lower SES, motor and cognitive impairments, and emotional/behavioral dysregulation at age 2.
Conclusions
Among extremely preterm children with ASD, almost one-half were not correctly screened by the M-CHAT at age 2. Sensorimotor and cognitive impairments, SES, and emotional/behavioral dysregulation contributed significantly to M-CHAT misclassifications. Clinicians are advised to consider these factors when screening very preterm toddlers for ASD.