Disaggregation of Global Climate Model Data to Create Idf Curves Under RCP8.5 Scenario

Abstract

Global climate change is one of the most important problems of our age. Its possible harmful effects are flood formation, loss of life and property, severe drought etc. Many studies are carried out to reduce these damages and to limit the impact area. The creation of precipitation intensity-duration-frequency curves (IDF) is one of these studies. These curves are especially used in the design of water structures. IDF curves are usually generated from observed precipitation data. This situation causes these curves to stay away from precipitation changes due to climate change. Therefore, these curves need to be updated under future climate projections. In this study, this problem was emphasized and the IDF curves of Muğla province were tried to be estimated according to the years 2023-2098 under the RCP8.5 scenarios of the HadGEM-ES, GFDL-ESM2M global models with the equivalent quantile matching method.