Disaster diplomacy: The intricate links between disaster and conflict

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has drawn worldwide attention to the difficulties inherent in managing disasters. Scholars across disciplines have been forced to consider the impact disasters have on interstate relations, state resilience, patterns of violence and hostility, and the vulnerabilities that condition conflict. This special issue offers new insights to help disentangle the relationship between disasters, conflict, and cooperation, by adhering to a three-pronged theoretical framework. First, all pieces in this issue are underpinned by a unified understanding of disasters as endogenous social phenomena. Second, we acknowledge that disasters occur as processes rather than discrete events. Finally, we explore the possibility that disasters and conflict are co-determined by a common set of factors. The articles herein were chosen not only because they advance academic thought about the disaster–conflict nexus, but also because of their potential to advance the practical impact of this line of research on the global conflict and disaster landscape. We highlight the relevance of this special issue for further work investigating the effects of conflict on disasters and the relationship between the hazards cycle process and patterns of violence and hostility, as well as the implications of adopting this suggested framework for policymaking and data collection.

Cyclones and violence against civilians: Evidence from the Cabo Delgado insurgency

“…Our findings thus offer an important example of how greater weather variability over the long term can increase the risk of violence against civilians. In this study, they thereby directly inform climate-conflict nexus debates (e.g., Von Uexkull & Buhaug, 2021; Yannitell Reinhardt & Lutmar, 2022).…”

“…Cyclone Idai struck first and was initially described by the United Nations (UN) as “one of the worst weather-related disasters ever to hit the southern hemisphere” (Faleg, 2019, p. 2), whereas Kenneth was reported to be the most powerful cyclone on record to hit the region (Maclean, 2019). Natural disasters often include endogenous processes, where the severity of their impact is shaped by local state capacity and conflict dynamics (Gaillard et al, 2008; Yannitell Reinhardt & Lutmar, 2022). However, the cyclones themselves constitute random weather shocks , meaning that changes in insurgency patterns in the storms’ immediate aftermath reflect their independent impact(s), once additional confounds are considered.…”

Research Trends in Resilience and Vulnerability Studies

“…The literature on resilience has a recurring theme of vulnerabilities that exist pre-event becoming points of difficulty or even serving as a breaking point during a disaster response. Reinhardt and Lutmar [24] raised the challenge of resilience in areas where conflict already exists; coupling a conflict, rebel groups against a government for example, with a pandemic scenario, can present even greater conflict or provide an opportunity for cooperation to serve both communities amid the difficulties being experienced by all.…”

Sociopolitical consequences of COVID‐19 in the Americas, Europe, and Asia: A multilevel, multicountry investigation of risk perceptions and support for antidemocratic practices

“…Instead, it created, at least during the early stages, a rally‐around‐the flag effect during which trust in institutions and leaders peaked (Yam et al, 2020). A closer look reveals that both lines of research have so far considered the pandemic, despite its long enduring consequences, as a discrete event (Reinhardt & Lutmar, 2022). However, research looking at the ongoing effects of war and natural disasters, as external and negative shocks, show that as the severity of such shocks increase, the use of repressive and authoritarian measures might also increase (Barceló et al, 2022; Lee et al, 2022).…”