Discovering environmental management opportunities for infectious disease control

Abstract

Climate change and emerging drug resistance make the control of many infectious diseases increasingly challenging and diminish the exclusive reliance on drug treatment as sole solution to the problem. As disease transmission often depends on environmental conditions that can be modified, such modifications may become crucial to risk reduction if we can assess their potential benefit at policy-relevant scales. However, so far, the value of environmental management for this purpose has received little attention. Here, using the parasitic disease of fasciolosis in livestock in the UK as a case study, we demonstrate how mechanistic hydro-epidemiological modelling can be applied to understand disease risk drivers and the efficacy of environmental management across a large heterogeneous domain. Our results show how weather and other environmental characteristics interact to define disease transmission potential and reveal that environmental interventions such as risk avoidance management strategies can provide a valuable alternative or complement to current treatment-based control practice.

Exploration of factors associated with spatial−temporal veterinary surveillance diagnoses of rumen fluke (Calicophoron daubneyi) infections in ruminants using zero-inflated mixed modelling

“…The benefit of this strategy was demonstrated by Parr and Gray ( 2000 ), who observed limited F. hepatica infections in intermediate host snail populations and subsequently in livestock when animals were strategically treated to suppress pasture contamination compared to a control farm that did not. Furthermore, modelling suggests that treatment of animals in late winter and spring would on average lead to a reduction in fasciolosis risk the following summer by 65% (Beltrame et al ., 2021 ). However, current guidance regarding the treatment of adult rumen fluke infections remains contentious, with treatment only recommended when clinical signs are observed alongside diagnosis when no other potential causes of ill thrift are identified (Forbes, 2018 ).…”

Climate change effects on terrestrial parasitic nematodes: Where are the knowledge gaps?

“…2019, Navarre 2020), such as fencing off risk areas and drainage (Beltrame et al . 2021). For instance, experiments on the effect of temperature and moisture (and their interaction) on the vertical and horizontal distribution of parasitic nematodes could provide information on infection hotspots in the herbage and might guide management of forage heights (Navarre 2020).…”

On the evaluation of climate change impact models

“…A key purpose of impact models is to clarify the influence of human decisions on the modeled system output under climate change, especially in the context of developing adaptation or intervention strategies (Beltrame et al, 2021). We might, for example, want to understand how much land‐use choices like deforestation/reforestation impact the level of downstream flooding under future climate conditions, or we might want to know the value of increased air‐conditioning on reducing human losses from excessive heat.…”

“…Such bottom-up approaches have been applied widely, including in hydrology (Singh et al, 2014), ecology (Poff et al, 2016), water resources systems analysis (Ghile et al, 2014;Quinn Saltelli et al, 2020), and natural hazards studies (Almeida et al, 2017). A key purpose of impact models is to clarify the influence of human decisions on the modeled system output under climate change, especially in the context of developing adaptation or intervention strategies (Beltrame et al, 2021). We might, for example, want to understand how much land-use choices like deforestation/reforestation impact the level of downstream flooding under future climate conditions, or we might want to know the value of increased airconditioning on reducing human losses from excessive heat.…”