Discretionary Wars, Cost-Benefit Analysis, and the Rashomon Effect: Searching for an Analytical Engine for Avoiding War

Abstract

2 The authors state that "…Hausken (2016) does not involve data or case studies". Hu et al., p. 1. In fact, the fourth section of Hausken (2016, pp. 462-465) is entitled, "Empirics: the 2003-2011 Iraq War. " That section presents quantitative estimates of (1) the dollar value of human lives lost plus individuals injured among U.S. personnel, (2) the dollar value of human lives lost plus individuals injured among Iraqi military personnel and civilians, (3) gained value of human lives (value of lives saved by the war) among Americans and among Iraqis, (4) economic cost or lost economic value to the United States, (5) gained economic value to the United States, and (6) gained influence value from the U.S. perspective. Categories (3), (5), and (6) can be classified as benefits. 3 Like Hausken (2016), several other economic evaluations of a war that include estimates of benefits examine the Second Gulf War (the Iraq War): Kosec and Wallsten (2006) and Davis, Murphy, and Topel (2003). The Hu et al. paper is notable, among several reasons, for its finding that the expected benefits of the impending Iraq War exceed the expected costs (as of 2002). 4 Decision making that resulted in the United States launching the Second Gulf War (the Iraq War) does not support the view that the president is always the pivotal decision maker. In that war, the roles of Vice President Cheney, Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, and senior Pentagon official Douglas J. Feithamong others-were very important in shaping the process that led to President George W. Bush signing the executive order to initiate the war. In addition, the roles of mainstream media (e.g., The New York Times), well-regarded commentators and think-tank analysts (e.g., Fareed Zakaria, Kenneth Pollack, and others), and prominent Democratic Party leaders (e.g., Senators Hillary Clinton and Joseph Biden) were important in shaping the elite consensus that favored war.