Disease burden and clinical severity of the first pandemic wave of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China

Abstract

The pandemic of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) began in Wuhan, China, where a first wave of intense community transmission was cut short by interventions. Using multiple data source, we estimated the disease burden and clinical severity of COVID-19 by age in Wuhan from December 1, 2019 to March 31, 2020. We adjusted estimates for sensitivity of laboratory assays and accounted for prospective community screenings and healthcare seeking behaviors. Rates of symptomatic cases, medical consultations, hospitalizations and deaths were estimated at 796 (95%CI: 703-977), 489 (472-509), 370 (358-384), and 36.2 (35.0-37.3) per 100,000 persons, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan had higher burden than the 2009 influenza pandemic or seasonal influenza, and that clinical severity was similar to that of the 1918 influenza pandemic. Our comparison puts the COVID-19 pandemic into context and could be helpful to guide intervention strategies and preparedness for the potential resurgence of COVID-19.

A quantitative assessment of epidemiological parameters required to investigate COVID-19 burden

“…Our results confirmed findings from other studies on the strong age gradient in the likelihood of developing symptoms, critical disease, and death after infection [7,24,26,33,34]. The estimated proportion of symptomatic cases among SARS-CoV-2 infections is within the range of estimates obtained in previous studies [29,32] and particularly close to findings obtained in Emery et al [27].…”

Projecting the transition of COVID-19 burden towards the young population while vaccines are rolled out: a modelling study

“…Such an epidemic is estimated to cause 1,693 (95% CI, 1,596–1,738) symptomatic infections, 827 (95% CI, 757–856) hospitalisations, 39 (95% CI, 37–41) ICU admissions, and 38 (95% CI, 35–39) deaths per 10,000 individuals over 1 year (Figures 1C and 2). These figures correspond to 10–22 fold the disease burden of the initial epidemic in Wuhan, China 6 . Under the adopted vaccination programme, 13% of symptomatic infections and 30% of hospitalisations were estimated to occur in children younger than 12 years (Figure S8), who were ineligible for COVID-19 vaccination until mid-October 2021.…”

“…D As A, but for mortality. The horizontal dotted lines in A, B , and D represent the rates of symptomatic cases, hospitalisations, and deaths, respectively, of the first pandemic wave of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China 6 .…”

“…Model projections show that, in the absence of NPIs, even when 97% of the population aged ⩾12 years is fully vaccinated, the importation of Delta variant infections could lead to a new COVID-19 wave and substantial health burden. In particular, the estimated number of deaths over 1 year was 38 per 10,000 individuals as compared, for instance, with 3.6 deaths per 10,000 individuals in the first epidemic wave in Wuhan in early 2020 6 . Extending vaccination to children could mitigate the number of symptomatic cases and severe outcomes but would not be enough to suppress transmission.…”

Fast and noninvasive electronic nose for sniffing out COVID-19 based on exhaled breath-print recognition

“…[3][4][5] While the other previously found human coronaviruses (e.g., HCoV-OC43, HCoV-NL63, HCoV-229E, and HKU1) only caused mild upper respiratory diseases in immunocompetent patients, SARS-CoV-2 has been considered to be the third deadly pathogenic coronavirus over the past two decades after the appearances of SARS-CoV (2002 in Guangdong province, China and the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV, 2012) in Middle Eastern countries. 1,6 COVID-19 pandemic is associated with signi cant fatalities, especially in the elderly and immunocompromised populations.…”