Disentangling increasing compound extremes at regional scale during Indian summer monsoon

Guntu, Ravi Kumar; Agarwal, Ankit

doi:10.1038/s41598-021-95775-0

Cited by 29 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…Considering CDHE hazards, particularly during the monsoon, it is essential to quantify the primary drivers of such extremes in India. Our results show that despite an increase in monsoon period soil moisture over India, CDHE frequency has increased during the observed record of 1950–2020, which is consistent with previous studies over India ( Sharma and Mujumdar, 2017 ; Dash and Maity, 2021 ; Guntu and Agarwal, 2021 ). A higher annual frequency of CDHEs is associated with drought years; however, in the recent decade, there has been a rise in CDHE frequency in non-drought years.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 93%

“…Next, we used STA and SSI pentads during the summer monsoon season to estimate the annual CDHE frequency during the observed period over India. While previous studies used precipitation to characterize CDHEs ( Sharma and Mujumdar, 2017 ; Mishra et al., 2020 ; Dash and Maity, 2021 ; Guntu and Agarwal, 2021 ), considering the importance of soil moisture variability on land-atmospheric feedbacks in the summer monsoon season, we employ SSI to characterize CDHEs. CDHEs during the summer monsoon increased in the observed period ( Figure 2 A).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent studies have examined the primary drivers of CDHEs and found that such events are increasingly being driven by long-term warming ( Chiang et al., 2018 ; Manning et al., 2019 ; Alizadeh et al., 2020 ). In recent years, India witnessed increased warm spells and heatwaves ( Panda et al., 2017 ) leading to increased frequency and intensity of all CDHEs ( Sharma and Mujumdar, 2017 ; Mishra et al., 2020 ; Guntu and Agarwal, 2021 ). Moreover, Bevacqua et al.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Even though CDHEs have known to significantly affect human systems (health, food, water, and energy systems), these have not been critically examined over India ( Sharma and Mujumdar, 2017 ; Mishra et al., 2020 ; Dash and Maity, 2021 ; Guntu and Agarwal, 2021 ). Particularly, the role of land-atmospheric coupling on compound extremes over India remains largely unrecognized.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate warming and summer monsoon breaks drive compound dry and hot extremes in India

Rajeev¹,

Mahto²,

Mishra³

2022

iScience

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Climate warming and summer monsoon breaks drive compound dry and hot extremes in India

Rajeev¹,

Mahto²,

Mishra³

2022

iScience

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“…The comparison of the results obtained for the period 1979–2019 with those obtained for 1950–2019 showed us that the area of significant correlations did not change much, although the median correlation coefficients became larger. Several heatwave events have already been linked to antecedent drought conditions in Europe (Miralles et al ., 2012; 2014; Dirmeyer et al ., 2021), Brazil (Geirinhas et al ., 2021), and India (Guntu and Agarwal, 2021). The frequency of heatwave events has been shown to have increased in Australia (Perkins‐Kirkpatrick et al ., 2017; Jyoteeshkumar Reddy et al ., 2021), and the frequency of compound dry and hot events is likely to increase in the future in this country (Wu et al ., 2020).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Summer hot extremes and antecedent drought conditions in Australia

Páscoa

Gouveia

Russo

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The compound occurrence of extreme weather and/or climate events can cause stronger negative impacts than the individual events, and its frequency is increasing in several regions of the world. In this work, the effect of antecedent drought conditions on hot extremes during the months of December-February in Australia was analysed for two periods (1979-2019 and 1950-2019). The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the indices number of hot days (NHD) and number of hot nights (NHN) were used to assess drought and extreme temperature events. While the link between dry and heat events is more important in the north in February, in December and January it is strong in the east coast. When temporal lags of 1-3 months are considered, there is a strong correlation between SPEI and NHD/NHN for the concurrent month on most of the study area. For the previous 1-3 months, the area and the correlation values decreased, but consistent spatial patterns were obtained for each month, namely negative correlations on the southwest and southeast in December, and the east in February. Tropical areas showed large areas of correlation between SPEI and NHN, including for the previous 3 months, whereas temperate climates showed the smaller area of correlation with NHN, including at the concurrent month. Significant correlations obtained for lead times longer than 1 month, namely with night heat extremes, point to a predictive ability in several regions of Australia.Moreover, the correlation coefficients obtained using the more recent period show similar spatial patterns, but with higher values than for the 1950-2019 period. The results highlight the prospect of an early prediction of hot summer extremes in regions affected by drought in spring.

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Multi‐index characterization of compound dry hot events in India

Prabhakar,

Mitra,

Varghese

2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Compound dry hot events (CDHEs), where hot events and droughts coexist, have received a lot of attention lately due to their catastrophic effects on the economy, environment and human health. In this study, we use two CDHE indices, the Standardized Compound Event Indicator (SCEI) and the Standardized Dry and Hot Index (SDHI), to assess changes in CDHE characteristics (severity, frequency, spatial extent) over the historical past and future CMIP6 simulations across the Indian subcontinent. To understand the role of the drought index selected on CDHE characterization two drought indices namely the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) are employed in the calculation of the CDHE indices. Further, the role of climatic oscillations such as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Equatorial Indian Ocean Monsoon Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole in modulating CDHE characteristics have also been explored. Results show that SPI and SPEI based CDHE indices exhibit contrasting trends in northern India, while similar trends are observed in southern India in the historical past. Also, more frequent, extended, and severe CDHEs are reported by CDHE indices calculated using SPEI than by SPI. Temperature is found to be the dominant factor contributing to increases in CDHEs in the recent past and ENSO phases significantly modulate the severity and frequency of CDHE events in India. CMIP6 simulations generally report an increase in CDHE events for a 3°C global warming scenario. Overall, our findings show that the choice of the drought index has a greater impact on CDHE characterization than the choice of the CDHE index itself. Results from this study provide useful information towards understanding the risk of CDHEs in India under global warming and urge for the development and implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures.

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Disentangling increasing compound extremes at regional scale during Indian summer monsoon

Cited by 29 publications

References 62 publications

Climate warming and summer monsoon breaks drive compound dry and hot extremes in India

Climate warming and summer monsoon breaks drive compound dry and hot extremes in India

Summer hot extremes and antecedent drought conditions in Australia

Multi‐index characterization of compound dry hot events in India

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