Disentangling the effect of measures, variants, and vaccines on SARS-CoV-2 infections in England: a dynamic intensity model

Abstract

In this paper, we estimate the path of daily SARS-CoV-2 infections in England from the beginning of the pandemic until the end of 2021. We employ a dynamic intensity model, where the mean intensity conditional on the past depends both on past intensity of infections and past realised infections. The model parameters are time-varying and we employ a multiplicative specification along with logistic transition functions to disentangle the time-varying effects of non-pharmaceutical policy interventions, of different variants and of protection (waning) of vaccines/boosters. Our model results indicate that earlier interventions and vaccinations are key to containing an infection wave. We consider several scenarios that account for more infectious variants and different protection levels of vaccines/boosters. These scenarios suggest that, as vaccine protection wanes, containing a new wave in infections and an associated increase in hospitalisations in the near future may require further booster campaigns and/or non-pharmaceutical interventions.