Disentangling the Genetic Landscape of Peripartum Depression: A Multi-Polygenic Machine Learning Approach on an Italian Sample

Abstract

Background: The genetic determinants of peripartum depression (PPD) are not fully understood. Using a multi-polygenic score approach, we characterized the relationship between genome-wide information and the history of PPD in patients with mood disorders, with the hypothesis that multiple polygenic risk scores (PRSs) could potentially influence the development of PPD. Methods: We calculated 341 PRSs for 178 parous mood disorder inpatients affected by major depressive disorder (MDD) or bipolar disorder (BD) with (n = 62) and without (n = 116) a history of PPD. We used partial least squares regression in a novel machine learning pipeline to rank PRSs based on their contribution to the prediction of PPD, in the whole sample and separately in the two diagnostic groups. Results: The PLS linear regression in the whole sample defined a model explaining 27.12% of the variance in the presence of PPD history, 56.73% of variance among MDD, and 42.96% of variance in BD. Our findings highlight that multiple genetic factors related to circadian rhythms, inflammation, and psychiatric diagnoses are top contributors to the prediction of PPD. Specifically, in MDD, the top contributing PRS was monocyte count, while in BD, it was chronotype, with PRSs for inflammation and psychiatric diagnoses significantly contributing to both groups. Conclusions: These results confirm previous literature about the immune system dysregulation in postpartum mood disorders, and shed light on which genetic factors are involved in the pathophysiology of PPD.