Disentangling the Swedish fertility decline of the 2010s

Abstract

BACKGROUNDThe downward fertility trend in Western countries during the 2010s is puzzling, not least in the Nordic region. OBJECTIVEIn order to better understand its driving forces, we examine whether the decline is driven by differential behavior or compositional changes across sociodemographic population subgroups, for the empirical case of Sweden. METHODSEvent-history techniques are applied to register data of the Swedish-born population to provide an in-depth analysis of the sociodemographic profile of the fertility decline. RESULTSThe decline is confined to first births, with no apparent difference between individuals living in different types of municipalities or between those with fully Swedish and non-Swedish backgrounds. The first-birth decline is notable across labor market activity groups, but is somewhat more pronounced among those with weaker labor market positions. However, the shares of men and women who were active in the labor market and who had high earnings increased. The findings are strikingly similar for men and women. CONCLUSIONSFor the most part the factors driving the Swedish fertility decline do not appear to be structural. Other forces, perhaps global, may underlie the general tendency to increasingly forego or postpone having children. The polarization in childbearing across labor market positions is an area for future research. CONTRIBUTIONThe study provides new insights into the conundrum of Nordic fertility decline during the 2010s.

Educational field, economic uncertainty, and fertility decline in Finland in 2010–2019

“…Previous research has described pronounced and rather similar declines in the 2010s across population sub-groups, which has made it difficult to identify the underlying drivers. Still, by now one feature stands out; the decline in first births has accelerated among the least educated (Comolli et al 2020) in all Nordic countries, and at least in Sweden, among those with weaker labour market attachment and lower earnings (Ohlsson Wijk and Andersson 2022). The findings of this study are in line with these previously observed patterns but highlight that first births are being increasingly postponed or foregone not only among those without a degree but also by those with a degree but educated in fields characterized by higher economic uncertainty.…”

“…The Nordic fertility decline appears to be a relatively universal phenomenon; beyond the much faster reduction in first births among childless women than in subsequent childbearing among mothers (Hellstrand et al 2021), previous studies have not found large variation across other population subgroups, e.g. by sub-national region, educational level, or migration background (Campisi et al 2020;Ohlsson Wijk and Andersson 2022). However, the first birth decline has been somewhat more pronounced among the lower educated (Comolli et al 2020;Hellstrand, Nisén, and Myrskylä 2022) and those with a weaker labour market attachment (Ohlsson Wijk and Andersson 2022).…”

“…by sub-national region, educational level, or migration background (Campisi et al 2020;Ohlsson Wijk and Andersson 2022). However, the first birth decline has been somewhat more pronounced among the lower educated (Comolli et al 2020;Hellstrand, Nisén, and Myrskylä 2022) and those with a weaker labour market attachment (Ohlsson Wijk and Andersson 2022).…”

Educational field, economic uncertainty, and fertility decline in Finland in 2010–2019

“…The Nordic fertility decline appears to be a relatively universal phenomenon; beyond the much faster reduction in first births among childless women than in subsequent childbearing among mothers (Hellstrand et al 2021), previous studies have not found large variation across other population subgroups, e.g. by sub-national region, educational level, or migration background (Campisi et al 2020;Ohlsson Wijk and Andersson 2022). However, the first birth decline has been somewhat more pronounced among the lower educated (Comolli et al 2020;Hellstrand, Nisén, and Myrskylä 2022) and those with a weaker labour market attachment (Ohlsson Wijk and Andersson 2022).…”

“…by sub-national region, educational level, or migration background (Campisi et al 2020;Ohlsson Wijk and Andersson 2022). However, the first birth decline has been somewhat more pronounced among the lower educated (Comolli et al 2020;Hellstrand, Nisén, and Myrskylä 2022) and those with a weaker labour market attachment (Ohlsson Wijk and Andersson 2022).…”