Disjunct populations of <scp>E</scp>uropean vascular plant species keep the same climatic niches

Wasof, Safaa; Lenoir, Jonathan; Aarrestad, Per Arild; Alsos, Inger Greve; Armbruster, W. Scott; Austrheim, Gunnar; Bakkestuen, Vegar; Birks, H. John B.; Bråthen, Kari Anne; Broennimann, Olivier; Brunet, Jörg; Bruun, Hans Henrik; Dahlberg, C. Johan; Diekmann, Martin; Dullinger, Stefan; Dynesius, Mats; Ejrnæs, Rasmus; Gégout, Jean‐Claude; Graae, Bente Jessen; Grytnes, John‐Arvid; Guisan, Antoine; Hylander, Kristoffer; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg S.; Kapfer, Jutta; Klanderud, Kari; Luoto, Miska; Milbau, Ann; Moora, Mari; Nygaard, Bettina; Odland, Arvid; Pauli, Harald; Ravolainen, Virve; Reinhardt, Stefanie; Sandvik, Sylvi M.; Schei, Fride Høistad; Speed, James D. M.; Svenning, Jens‐Christian; Thuiller, Wilfried; Tveraabak, Liv Unn; Vandvik, Vigdis; Velle, Liv Guri; Virtanen, Risto; Vittoz, Pascal; Willner, Wolfgang; Wohlgemuth, Thomas; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Zobel, Martin; Decocq, Guillaume

doi:10.1111/geb.12375

Cited by 45 publications

(55 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…This potential for genetic differentiation between northern and southern populations of the same species could be investigated for alpine species that currently have disjunct distributions across Europe. It has recently been demonstrated that the actual niche width of distant populations of the same species differs between the Alps and Fennoscandia, being higher in the Alps than in Fennoscandia and thus suggesting a greater genetic diversity in populations from the Alps (Wasof et al ., ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Early signs of range disjunction of submountainous plant species: an unexplored consequence of future and contemporary climate changes

Kuhn

Lenoir

Piedallu

et al. 2016

Global Change Biology

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Poleward and upward species range shifts are the most commonly anticipated and studied consequences of climate warming. However, these global responses to climate change obscure more complex distribution change patterns. We hypothesize that the spatial arrangement of mountain ranges and, consequently, climatic gradients in Europe, will result in range disjunctions. This hypothesis was investigated for submountainous forest plant species at two temporal and spatial scales: (i) under future climate change (between 1950-2000 and 2061-2080 periods) at the European scale and (ii) under contemporary climate change (between 1914-1987 and 1997-2013 periods) at the French scale. We selected 97 submountainous forest plant species occurring in France, among which distribution data across Europe are available for 25 species. By projecting future distribution changes for the 25 submountainous plant species across Europe, we demonstrated that range disjunction is a likely consequence of future climate change. To assess whether it is already taking place, we used a large forest vegetation-plot database covering the entire French territory over 100 years (1914-2013) and found an average decrease in frequency (-0.01 ± 0.004) in lowland areas for the 97 submountainous species - corresponding to a loss of 6% of their historical frequency - along with southward and upward range shifts, suggesting early signs of range disjunctions. Climate-induced range disjunctions should be considered more carefully since they could have dramatic consequences on population genetics and the ability of species to face future climate changes.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Early signs of range disjunction of submountainous plant species: an unexplored consequence of future and contemporary climate changes

Kuhn

Lenoir

Piedallu

et al. 2016

Global Change Biology

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“…Similarly, to depict the moisture conditions in a niche comparison of arctic–alpine plant species, Wasof et al . () used aridity indices which were more analogue than annual precipitation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Selecting predictors to maximize the transferability of species distribution models: lessons from cross‐continental plant invasions

Petitpierre

Broennimann

Kueffer

et al. 2016

Global Ecol. Biogeogr.

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Aim Niche‐based species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to predict impacts of global change on biodiversity, but the reliability of these predictions in space and time depends on their transferability. We tested how the strategy used to choose predictors impacts the transferability of SDMs at a cross‐continental scale. Location North America, Eurasia and Australia. Method We used a systematic approach including 50 Holarctic plant invaders and 27 initial predictor variables, considering 10 different strategies for variable selection, accounting for the proximality, multicollinearity and climate analogy of predictors. We compared the average performance of each strategy, some of which used a large number of predictor combinations. Next, we looked for the single best model for each species across all the predictor combinations retained in the analysis. Transferability was considered as the predictive success of SDMs calibrated in the native range and projected onto the invaded range. Results Two strategies showed better SDM transferability on average: a set of predictors known for their ecologically meaningful effects on plant distribution, and the two first axes of a principal component analysis calibrated on all predictor variables (Spc2). From the more than 2000 combinations of predictors per species across strategies, the best set of predictors yielded SDMs with good transferability for 45 species (90%). These best combinations consisted of eight randomly assembled (39 species) or uncorrelated predictors (6 species) and Spc2 (5 species). We also found that internal cross‐validation was not sufficient to give full information about the transferability of a SDM to a distinct range. Main conclusion Transferring SDMs at the macroclimatic scale, and thus anticipating invasions, is possible for the large majority of invasive plants considered in this study, but the accuracy of the predictions relies strongly on the choice of predictors. From our results, we recommend including either proximal and state‐of‐the‐art variables or a reduced and orthogonalized set to obtain robust SDM projections.

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“…However, the establishment of an ecological barrier for Roscoea was not only affected by low temperature and high moisture but also involved the effects of more environmental variables and even interactions among different factors. Based on ENM of more than 300 species in the European Alps and Fennoscandia, Wasof et al () concluded that disjunct plant groups maintained the same climatic niches and that niche conservatism was higher for arctic–alpine species. Clarke et al () also proposed that if the climate maintains the regional disjunction, the climate niches between disjunct groups would be similar, and the climate niche of the central region (the Gap) would be significantly different.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An ecological barrier between the Himalayas and the Hengduan Mountains maintains the disjunct distribution of Roscoea

Zhao

et al. 2019

Journal of Biogeography

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Aim Regional disjunction in mountainous regions is ubiquitous and is closely associated with the evolution of mountain biodiversity. However, the mechanisms of maintaining regional disjunction are often ignored, especially regarding the role of ecological barriers. The aim of this study is to test whether an ecological barrier maintains the regional disjunction of Roscoea between the Himalayas (HIM) and the Hengduan Mountains/Yun‐Gui Plateau (HMY). Location The Himalayas and the Hengduan Mountains/Yun‐Gui Plateau, Asia. Taxon Monocot:Zingiberales:Zingiberaceae:Roscoea. Methods Occurrence data from Roscoea were collected from public databases and field investigations. Environmental niche modelling (ENM) was used to predict the potential distribution of Roscoea during the Last Interglacial (LIG), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the present and the future. An environmental variable difference test, principal component analysis (PCA), discriminant function analysis (DFA) and niche identity test were employed to qualify and quantify the contributions of environmental factors to ecological divergence based on 7 and 26 environmental variables. Results Environmental niche modelling predicted an ecological gap of Roscoea between the HIM and the HMY from the LIG into the future, excluding the LGM. Statistically significant differences were detected in eight unique environmental variables across the Gap, which was mostly related to low temperatures and high moisture levels. The PCA, DFA and niche identity test suggested larger ecological separations among the Gap, the HIM and the HMY based on 26 environmental variables than based on seven variables. Main conclusions All clues point to an ecological barrier that has been maintaining the regional disjunction of Roscoea. This ecological barrier is predicted to be stable under future climate change and may reflect long‐term ecological divergence shaped by the adaptation of Roscoea to divergent habitats. Our study highlights that the effects of specific environmental variables, with possible interactions among multiple ecological factors, being closely related to the ecological barrier.

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Disjunct populations of European vascular plant species keep the same climatic niches

Abstract: International audienc

Cited by 45 publications

References 39 publications

Early signs of range disjunction of submountainous plant species: an unexplored consequence of future and contemporary climate changes

Early signs of range disjunction of submountainous plant species: an unexplored consequence of future and contemporary climate changes

Selecting predictors to maximize the transferability of species distribution models: lessons from cross‐continental plant invasions

An ecological barrier between the Himalayas and the Hengduan Mountains maintains the disjunct distribution of Roscoea

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