Disparities in the Evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic between Spanish Provinces

Abstract

Spain experienced a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in autumn 2020, which has been approached with different measures by regional authorities. We analyze the presence of convergence in the cumulative incidence for 14 days (CI14) in provinces and self-governing cities. The Phillips–Sul methodology was used to study the grouping of behavior between provinces, and an ordered logit model was estimated to understand the forces that drive creating the different convergence clubs. We reject the presence of a single pattern of behavior in the evolution of the CI14 across territories. Four statistically different convergence clubs and an additional province (Madrid) with divergent behavior are observed. Provinces with developed agricultural and industrial economic sectors, high mobility, and a high proportion of Central and South American immigrants had the highest level of CI14. We show that the transmission of the virus is not homogeneous in the Spanish national territory. Our results are helpful for identifying differences in determinants that could explain the pandemic’s evolution and for formulating hypotheses about the effectiveness of implemented measures.

COVID-19 and Public Health Spending; Effects on the Economic Sustainability of the Spanish Private Healthcare System

“…Although the influence of population density is so high that it absorbs all other factors, it has also been shown that the higher the per capita income of the inhabitants, the higher the number of COVID-19 cases, which is in line with previous research [ 17 ]. This finding could be explained by the fact that more interaction between people is necessary in order to carry out greater productive activity.…”

“…Similarly, the COVID-19 pandemic was heterogeneous across the Spanish territory. Some studies have pointed to mobility, immigration, and the economic structure of the different regions as determining factors [ 17 ]. Considering how the virus spread throughout the national territory and how, as previously mentioned, it influenced the economy, it would be interesting to analyze how it affected the economic sustainability of the private hospital sector and whether any relationship was observed with public health spending.…”

Individuals With SARS-CoV-2 Infection During the First and Second Waves in Catalonia, Spain: Retrospective Observational Study Using Daily Updated Data

“…These measures had a certain effectiveness, and the first COVID-19 wave faded away during the summer in Europe [7], only to give way to a second wave shortly after, with the easing of restrictions and presumably the initiation of the school term [8,9], although later reports questioned this [10][11][12], as well as the transfer of social life into indoor spaces [13]. The steady second increase of cases in Europe was initially evident in Spain from where it spread again, although this time at a slower pace, even within the Spanish regions [14]. After all, health systems had a short period to organize their structure if a second wave hit in the autumn, as was the case.…”

Cooperative employment in the regions of Spain (1999–2019): The convergence clubs

“…At the same time, empirical evidence corroborates the existence of convergence clubs between countries for different variables (Apergis & Garzón, 2020; Barrios et al., 2018; Borsi & Metiu, 2015; Monfort et al., 2013; Phillips & Sul, 2007), as well as between regions (Barrios et al., 2019; Bartkowska & Riedl, 2012; Gonzalez et al., 2017; López‐Mendóza et al., 2021; Postiglione et al., 2010; Rodríguez et al., 2016; Tian et al., 2016; Von Lyncker & Thoennessen, 2016), with differences observed in terms of the variables used, the sample considered, the methodology employed, and the number and composition of clubs (Castellacci & Archibugi, 2008). However, empirical evidence on the existence of convergence clubs in Spain is still scarce.…”