Displacement through development? Property turnover and eviction risk in Seattle

Abstract

Eviction is a powerful form of displacement that perpetuates and amplifies socioeconomic and racial inequalities through the rental housing market. Examining the relationship between evictions and property turnover through Neil Smith’s theories of gentrification and uneven geographical development, this article considers the argument that eviction provides a mechanism for property owners to facilitate displacement prior to property redevelopment and neighbourhood change. Models of property-level turnover in the city of Seattle reveal that evictions are more likely to occur at properties that are sold in the same year, properties where planned demolition or remodelling activity is imminent and buildings that have been recently constructed. Increased likelihood of eviction is also associated with a greater volume of remodelling and demolition permit applications filed in the surrounding neighbourhood, suggesting that evictions may be more likely to occur at the early stages of development-driven neighbourhood change. These findings highlight the multifaceted relationship between evictions and property turnover and illustrate the value of administrative microdata for displacement research.

Quantifying displacement: Using turnover data to measure physical and psychological neighborhood change

“…Physical displacement is notoriously difficult to measure (Chapple, 2019, p. 317;Easton et al, 2020), although recent scholarship has made significant inroads using locally specific eviction records, census data, and consumer registrations to begin to assess the scale of physical residential displacement taking place in urban areas (Atkinson, 2000;Freeman et al, 2016;Freeman & Braconi, 2004;Ramiller, 2021). One fundamental challenge is distinguishing displacement from voluntary moves; at what point on the spectrum of residential mobility decisions does a move become forced?…”

“…Evictions, rental increases, barred access to new facilities, discriminatory lending practices, and many landlord practices to encourage vacation fall somewhere on the spectrum of forced or involuntary moves. Unseen pressures on residents, as well as biases in collecting data all contribute to the murkiness of measuring the scale of physical displacement (Ramiller, 2021).…”

Critical barriers and countermeasures to urban regeneration from the stakeholder perspective: a literature review

“…Unsolved conflicts may indue violent demolition and eviction (Han et al, 2018), which is a global phenomenon (du Plessis, 2005;Liu and Xu, 2018), and reported in developed countries such as the United States (Sullivan, 2014;Mah, 2021;Ramiller, 2022), Italy (Olds et al, 2002) and developing countries such as China (He, 2012;Liu and Xu, 2018;Liu G. et al, 2020), South Africa (Wilhelm-Solomon, 2016), Bangladesh (Islam and Mungai, 2016), Nigeria (Roberts and Okanya, 2022) and Turkey (Cabannes and Goral, 2020).…”

“…Conflicts among stakeholders also bring out several social problems. For example, unbalanced benefit distribution could harm the interests of disadvantaged groups and intensify social exclusion (Jiang et al, 2020), while violent eviction leads to displacement and social unrest (Yu et al, 2017;Ramiller, 2022). Moreover, insufficient participation reduces residents' sense of belonging and wellbeing (Fung, 2015).…”

Where Do They Go? The Destinations of Residents Moving from Gentrifying Neighborhoods

“…Research on evictions, a type of displacement, also fails to find consistent links with gentrification. Studies that have found higher rates of eviction in gentrifying neighborhoods have lacked counterfactuals—gentrifiable neighborhoods that did not gentrify (Chum 2015; Ramiller 2021). Several other studies have failed to find a connection between eviction rates and gentrification (Desmond and Gershenson 2017; Shelton 2018).…”