Patient heterogeneity in health economic decision models for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD): are current models suitable to evaluate personalized medicine?
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AbstractObjectives: To assess how suitable current COPD cost-effectiveness models are to evaluate personalized treatment options for COPD by exploring the type of heterogeneity included in current models and by validating outcomes for subgroups of patients.Methods: A consortium of COPD modelling groups completed three tasks. First, they reported all patient characteristics included in the model and provided the level of detail in which the input parameters were specified. Second, groups simulated disease progression, mortality, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs for hypothetical subgroups of patients that differed in terms of gender, age, smoking status and lung function (FEV1% predicted). Finally, model outcomes for exacerbations and mortality for subgroups of patients were validated against published subgroup results of two large COPD trials.Results: Nine COPD modelling groups participated. Most models included gender (seven), age (nine), smoking status (six) and FEV1% predicted (nine), mainly to specify disease progression and mortality.Trial results showed higher exacerbation rates for females (found in one model), higher mortality rates for males (two models), lower mortality for younger patients (four models), and higher exacerbation and mortality rates in patients with severe COPD (four models).Conclusions: The majority of currently available COPD cost-effectiveness models are able to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of personalized treatment based on gender, age, smoking and FEV1% predicted. Treatment in COPD is however, more likely to be personalized based on clinical parameters. Two models include several clinical patient characteristics and are therefore most suitable to evaluate personalized treatment, although some important clinical parameters are still missing.4